Modeling of bacterial growth as a function of temperature

Zwietering, M.H.; Koos, J. T. De; Hasenack, Birgit; Witt, Jerry; Riet, Klaas van’t

doi:10.1128/aem.57.4.1094-1101.1991

Cited by 387 publications

(203 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…In contrast, broad temperature ranges (often spanning > 40°C) have been explored in studies of substrate-limited microbial growth in batch cultures and commercial food products (e.g. Zwietering et al 1991;Zanoni et al 1993;Singh et al 2011;Urit et al 2013). These studies found unimodal temperature dependence of the intrinsic growth rate, while carrying capacity changed either slightly (and unimodally) with temperature or not at all before abruptly collapsing at high temperatures, similar to the pattern predicted for the closed, nutrient-limited system.…”

Section: Temperature Dependence Of Prey Carrying Capacitymentioning

confidence: 96%

Effects of warming on predator–prey interactions – a resource‐based approach and a theoretical synthesis

et al. 2017

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We theoretically explore consequences of warming for predator-prey dynamics, broadening previous approaches in three ways: we include beyond-optimal temperatures, predators may have a type III functional response, and prey carrying capacity depends on explicitly modelled resources. Several robust patterns arise. The relationship between prey carrying capacity and temperature can range from near-independence to monotonically declining/increasing to hump-shaped. Predators persist in a U-shaped region in resource supply (=enrichment)-temperature space. Type II responses yield stable persistence in a U-shaped band inside this region, giving way to limit cycles with enrichment at all temperatures. In contrast, type III responses convey stability at intermediate temperatures and confine cycles to low and high temperatures. Warming-induced state shifts can be predicted from system trajectories crossing stability and persistence boundaries in enrichment-temperature space. Results of earlier studies with more restricted assumptions map onto this graph as special cases. Our approach thus provides a unifying framework for understanding warming effects on trophic dynamics.

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Section: Temperature Dependence Of Prey Carrying Capacitymentioning

confidence: 96%

Effects of warming on predator–prey interactions – a resource‐based approach and a theoretical synthesis

et al. 2017

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“…2). High temperatures have often been reported to increase the maximum cell density in microbial growth modelling (Zwietering et al 1991;Koseki & Isobe 2005) but not always (Baranyi & Pin 2001;Kim et al 2003). Product characteristics and the specific microbial organisms concerned determine the dynamics of the maximum attainable growth level.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cook-chill or sous vide products preserved with mild heating in a central kitchen are also often limited in their shelf life due to microbial spoilage in foodservice facilities (Church 1998). Many ready-to-eat foods are prepared by mild braising of the ingredients and/or pasteurisation and are susceptible to microbial proliferation, even though the salting, cooking and heating steps provide some degree of preservation (Zwietering et al 1991;Gould 1996;Kim et al 2003;Galimpin-Johan et al 2007). Although there have been some technological developments in preserving these prepared products, the precise determination of their storage life is required to ensure their quality and safety in the foodservice environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of mould/yeast growth on Korean braised lotus root cuts as a primary quality index in storage

Seo

Park

et al. 2009

J Foodservice

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Mould/yeast growth on Korean braised lotus root cuts, a primary quality deterioration factor for shelf life determination, was monitored during storage at constant temperatures and was modelled as a function of temperature to estimate microbial spoilage under constant and/or dynamic storage conditions expected in a foodservice system. With help of a bootstrapping method to generate many resampled data sets of microbial plate counts, 1000 parameter sets for Baranyi's model in the form of differential equations were estimated. The temperature dependence of the primary model parameters was provided together with their confidence limits. When the temperature‐dependent parameters were incorporated into the differential equations for microbial growth, prediction of mould/yeast count change under constant and fluctuating temperature conditions could be provided with a confidence band close to the experimental data as a useful tool for the shelf life control.

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“…Results are shown in Table 4. In order to model bacterial growth as a function of temperature, there are several models available in the scientific literature (Hinshelwood, 1946;Ratkowsky et al, 1982;Zwietering et al, 1991;Baranyi et al, 1993;Rosso et al, 1993;Whiting et al, 2000). They are based on either a mechanistic or empirical approach.…”

Section: Effect Of Temperature and Time On The Growth Of Salmonella Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientific Opinion on the public health risks of table eggs due to deterioration and development of pathogens

2014

EFSA Journal

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Salmonella Enteritidis is considered the only pathogen currently posing a major risk of egg-borne diseases in the European Union (EU). The possible impact of extending the shelf-life of eggs on the risk to consumers posed by S. Enteritidis was estimated by applying a quantitative model and comparing the actual situation regarding the storage of eggs in the EU with different possible scenarios combined, considering the prolongation of the bestbefore and the sell-by date from 7 to a maximum of 70 days. Extending the sell-by date by one week (from 21 to 28 days), but leaving the best-before date unchanged, is estimated to result in a relative risk of illness of 1.4 and 1.5 for uncooked and lightly cooked egg meals respectively, compared to the current situation. If the best-before date is also extended by one week (from 28 to 35 days), the relative risk would be 1.6 and 1.7. In the worst case scenario considered (sell-by date of 42 days, best before date of 70 days), such figures would be 2.9 and 3.5. It should be noted that the absolute risk is greater for uncooked meals compared to lightly cooked meals. An effective way to minimise any increase in risk during extended storage is to keep the eggs refrigerated both at retail and the household. Regarding egg spoilage, such events strongly depend on the hygienic conditions of egg production and practices of egg handling, including storage times and temperatures. Finally, the impact of the prolongation of storage time on the quality criteria for eggs (3-hydroxybutyric acid and lactic acid) destined for manufacturing of egg products is considered negligible. Specifically, EFSA was asked to assess: (i) the public health risk posed by relevant pathogens and in particular by Salmonella in the consumption and handling of table eggs (Term of Reference, or ToR1), (ii) the public health risk deriving from deterioration (ToR2) and (iii) possible consequences for public health of an extended shelf-life of table eggs for the specific freshness criteria for egg products as laid out in the hygiene package (ToR3). © European Food Safety Authority, 2014 KEY WORDSIn order to answer the first ToR, the BIOHAZ Panel based its conclusions on the results of a quantitative model, aimed at describing the behaviour of Salmonella Enteritidis following vertical transmission, since this serovar is recognised to be the major pathogen related to egg-borne disease because of its ability to contaminate the interior of intact eggs during their formation within the body of an infected hen. The possible impact of extending the shelf-life of eggs on other serovars of Salmonella, as well as on other pathogens, is evaluated in a qualitative manner, with no individual serovar other than S. Enteritidis currently posing a major risk of egg-borne salmonellosis in the European Union (EU), although S. Typhimurium has been associated with relatively small outbreaks due to duck eggs. Trans-shell contamination (i.e. secondary contamination) is also discussed, but the impact of a prolongation of the shelf ...

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Modeling of bacterial growth as a function of temperature

Cited by 387 publications

References 14 publications

Effects of warming on predator–prey interactions – a resource‐based approach and a theoretical synthesis

Effects of warming on predator–prey interactions – a resource‐based approach and a theoretical synthesis

Modelling of mould/yeast growth on Korean braised lotus root cuts as a primary quality index in storage

Scientific Opinion on the public health risks of table eggs due to deterioration and development of pathogens

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