Modeling Noble Gas Transport and Detection for The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Sun, Yunwei; Carrigan, Charles R.

doi:10.1007/s00024-012-0514-4

Cited by 34 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The theory of soil gas movement under the influence of barometric pumping was explored by Massmann and Farrier (1992), Auer et al (1996), Scanlon et al (2001), and Neeper and Stauffer (2012), among others. Carrigan et al (1996) and Sun and Carrigan (2014) have developed numerical models for vadose zone transport of radionuclide gases from UNEs in fractured rock with barometric pumping. Double‐porosity modeling of subsurface transport of Xe isotopes from UNEs has also been used to show the effects of uncertain geologic properties on the fractionation of various Xe isotopes ( 133 Xe, metastable 133 Xe and 131 Xe, and 135 Xe) (Lowrey et al, 2013).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Gaining insights into the magnitude and form of uncertainties in predicted gas breakthrough as a result of uncertain geologic parameters (fracture aperture, matrix permeability, porosity, and saturation) was the primary objective of this research. The influence of hydrogeologic parameters on gas breakthrough is complex and nonlinear, as demonstrated by the analytical modeling of Nilson et al (1991) and Auer et al (1996) and the numerical modeling of Sun and Carrigan (2014). Fracture aperture and matrix permeability are universally recognized as important factors in barometric pumping efficiency.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty in Prediction of Radionuclide Gas Migration from Underground Nuclear Explosions

Jordan

Stauffer

Zyvoloski

et al. 2014

Vadose Zone Journal

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Underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) produce radionuclide gases that may seep to the surface over weeks to months. The objective of this research was to quantify the impact of uncertainties in hydrologic parameters (fracture aperture, matrix permeability, porosity, and saturation) and season of detonation on the timing of gas breakthrough. Numerical sensitivity analyses were performed, with barometric pumping providing the primary driving force for gas migration, for the case of a 1 kt UNE at 400-m depth of burial. Gas arrival time was most affected by matrix permeability and fracture aperture. Gases having higher diffusivity were more sensitive to uncertainty in the rock properties. The effect of seasonality in the barometric pressure forcing was found to be important, with detonations in March the least likely to be detectable based on barometric data for Rainier Mesa, Nevada. Monte Carlo realizations were performed with all four parameters varying simultaneously to determine their interrelated effects. The Monte Carlo method was also used to predict the window of opportunity for 133 Xe detection from a 1 kt UNE at Rainier Mesa, with and without matching the model to SF 6 and 3 He data from the 1993 Non-Proliferation Experiment. Results from the data-blind Monte Carlo simulations were similar but were biased toward earlier arrival time and less likely to show detectable 133 Xe. The estimated timing of gas arrival may be used to deploy personnel and equipment to the site of a suspected UNE, if allowed under the terms of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty.

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confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in Prediction of Radionuclide Gas Migration from Underground Nuclear Explosions

Jordan

Stauffer

Zyvoloski

et al. 2014

Vadose Zone Journal

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“…6 is solved using ODE solvers, which may be computationally expensive, sometimes with an additional effort for dealing with the formulation and stiffness of user-defined reaction kinetics. 30,31 Since the concentration change contributed by reaction kinetics in a diffusion time step is numerically simulated as an initial value problem…”

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confidence: 99%

Expeditious modeling of vapor transport and reactions in polymeric materials

et al. 2017

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We present a methodology for approximating dynamic adsorption of vapor coupled with diffusion in polymeric materials. In previous publications, the dynamic adsorption was represented by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and solved in concentration and parameter space. To accelerate the calculation, we have developed a statistical approximation method using computationally cheap surrogate models (e.g., algebraic polynomials) that replace the ODE solutions of adsorption and are coupled with the diffusion equations. Since the polynomial presentation of the adsorption term is obtained in a standard format prior to modeling coupled sorption-diffusion, the adsorption operator can be expressed as input data in the transport code. Compared to conventional operator-splitting methods, the polynomial approximation of adsorption offers better computational efficiency. The methodology is demonstrated and validated using a dynamic Langmuir adsorption model that is coupled to diffusion and absorption models and applied to a water vapor sorptiondiffusion process in polydimethylsiloxane polymers. V C 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 00: 000-000, 2017 Keywords: reactive transport, surrogate model, operator splitting, numerical modeling, Langmuir adsorption IntroductionModeling vapor and gas sorption and diffusion in polymeric and nanoporous materials is of fundamental importance to a variety of industries and applications. Since Vieth and Sladek, 1 the dual-mode sorption model with equilibrium Henry's absorption and Langmuir adsorption has been used to interpret sorption-diffusion processes in polymers, [2][3][4][5] forming the basis or complimenting reactive transport modeling in polymers. [6][7][8][9][10] Recent advances in the technology for experimentally measuring vapor uptake and outgassing facilitate data collection for the understanding of the dynamic processes of diffusion coupled with triple-mode sorptions (absorption, Langmuir adsorption, and pooling). [11][12][13] Rigorous mathematical models have been developed for simulating vapor diffusion coupled with triple-mode sorption. Equilibrium and kinetic sorption processes are treated separately and modeled accordingly using suitable solution methods. Typically, the Langmuir adsorption is treated as a kinetic-reaction and modeled by solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Solving these ODEs is computationally expensive and time consuming, limiting the applicability of these models to only high priority calculations and forcing the majority of the field to subsist on lower-fidelity but more computationally efficient models.These computational challenges are experienced in a variety of modeling applications, especially in the field of reactive transport modeling. In addition to the kinetic-Langmuir adsorption equations, there is also a need for coupling userdefined chemical kinetic equations with diffusion. Because of the wide variety of kinetic reaction mechanisms and their respective mathematical formulations, coding kinetic reactions in...

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“…To date, several conceptual isotopic evolution and gas transport models have been published that attempt to characterize time-dependent xenon concentrations at the ground surface [Carrigan et al, 1996;Lowrey et al, 2012;Carrigan and Sun, 2012;Sun and Carrigan, 2012;Jordan et al, 2014Jordan et al, , 2015Sun et al, 2015]. The primary remaining question is how we can best use these conceptual models, with qualitative knowledge about the system and the physics of governing equations, to evaluate and interpret the quantitative data from experiments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermally driven advection for radioxenon transport from an underground nuclear explosion

Sun

Carrigan

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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Barometric pumping is a ubiquitous process resulting in migration of gases in the subsurface that has been studied as the primary mechanism for noble gas transport from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE). However, at early times following a UNE, advection driven by explosion residual heat is relevant to noble gas transport. A rigorous measure is needed for demonstrating how, when, and where advection is important. In this paper three physical processes of uncertain magnitude (oscillatory advection, matrix diffusion, and thermally driven advection) are parameterized by using boundary conditions, system properties, and source term strength. Sobol' sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate the importance of all physical processes influencing the xenon signals. This study indicates that thermally driven advection plays a more important role in producing xenon signals than oscillatory advection and matrix diffusion at early times following a UNE, and xenon isotopic ratios are observed to have both time and spatial dependence.

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Modeling Noble Gas Transport and Detection for The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Cited by 34 publications

References 27 publications

Uncertainty in Prediction of Radionuclide Gas Migration from Underground Nuclear Explosions

Uncertainty in Prediction of Radionuclide Gas Migration from Underground Nuclear Explosions

Expeditious modeling of vapor transport and reactions in polymeric materials

Thermally driven advection for radioxenon transport from an underground nuclear explosion

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