Modeling Movement of West Nile Virus in the Western Hemisphere

Rappole, John H.; Compton, Bradley W.; Leimgruber, Peter; Robertson, Jamie; King, David I.; Renner, Swen C.

doi:10.1089/vbz.2006.6.128

Cited by 49 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Our model builds on previously published epidemiological models that use generalized parameters to understand WNV transmission dynamics [27,48,49]. Previous models were rarely field-validated, since many were not empirically informed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vector host-feeding preferences drive transmission of multi-host pathogens: West Nile virus as a model system

et al. 2011

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Seasonal epizootics of vector-borne pathogens infecting multiple species are ecologically complex and difficult to forecast. Pathogen transmission potential within the host community is determined by the relative abilities of host species to maintain and transmit the pathogen and by ecological factors influencing contact rates between hosts and vectors. Increasing evidence of strong feeding preferences by a number of vectors suggests that the host community experienced by the pathogen may be very different from the local host community. We developed an empirically informed transmission model for West Nile virus (WNV) in four sites using one vector species (Culex pipiens) and preferred and non-preferred avian hosts. We measured strong feeding preferences for American robins (Turdus migratorius) by Cx. pipiens, quantified as the proportion of Cx. pipiens blood meals from robins in relation to their abundance (feeding index). The model accurately predicted WNV prevalence in Cx. pipiens at three of four sites. Sensitivity analysis revealed feeding preference was the most influential parameter on intensity and timing of peak WNV infection in Cx. pipiens and a threshold feeding index for transmission was identified. Our findings indicate host preferenceinduced contact heterogeneity is a key mediator of vector-borne pathogen epizootics in multi-species host communities, and should be incorporated into multi-host transmission models.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vector host-feeding preferences drive transmission of multi-host pathogens: West Nile virus as a model system

et al. 2011

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“…An expression for R 0 derived from the NGM provides an insightful and comparatively easy-to-appreciate tool with which to study the relative importance of transmission routes for establishing epidemics. It would be interesting to include the bird-to-bird transmission that we studied here in a spatial model (see Rappole et al 2006) to assess the possible role of bird-to-bird transmission in the spatial (east-west) spread through the North American continent.…”

Section: Bird-to-bird Transmission Of West Nile Virus 581mentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of Bird-to-Bird Transmission for the Establishment of West Nile Virus

Hartemink

Davis

Reiter

et al. 2007

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

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West Nile virus (WNV) is principally considered to be maintained in a mosquito-bird transmission cycle. Under experimental conditions, several other transmission routes have been observed, but the significance of these additional routes in nature is unknown. Here, we derive an expression for the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) for WNV including all putative routes of transmission between birds and mosquitoes to gauge the relative importance of these routes for the establishment of WNV. Parameters were estimated from published experimental results. Sensitivity analysis reveals that R 0 is sensitive to transmission between birds via close contact, but not to mosquito-to-mosquito transmission. In seasons or in areas where the mosquito-to-bird ratio is low, bird-to-bird transmission may be crucial in determining whether WNV can establish or not. We explain the use of R 0 as a flexible tool to measure the risk of establishment of vector-borne diseases. Key Words: West Nile virus-Model-Basic reproduction number-R 0 -Direct transmission-Bird-to-bird transmission. 575

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“…We present the most complete model for WNV transmission dynamics to date. Several earlier papers have developed or analyzed mechanistic models for WNV epidemiology, [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28] but all have modeled birds as a single entity and none incorporated multiple levels of avian host competence. Also, only one earlier model 22 acknowledged temperaturedependence for any parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous models of WNV dispersal had indicated that these post-fledging movements may have been sufficient to explain the sudden jumps in WNV distribution within North America. 23 West Nile virus now seems to be endemic throughout California and modeled changes in R 0 based on temperature and cumulative herd immunity would seem sufficient to explain the patterns of epidemic increase, subsequent subsidence, and reemergence.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Temperature on Emergence and Seasonality of West Nile Virus in California

Hartley

Barker²,

Menach

et al. 2012

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

122

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Abstract. Temperature has played a critical role in the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission throughout California from its introduction in 2003 through establishment by 2009. We compared two novel mechanistic measures of transmission risk, the temperature-dependent ratio of virus extrinsic incubation period to the mosquito gonotrophic period (BT), and the fundamental reproductive ratio (R 0 ) based on a mathematical model, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of receptivity to viral amplification. Maps of BT and R 0 were created at 20-km scale and compared throughout California to seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks at half-month intervals. Overall, estimates of BT and R 0 agreed with intensity of transmission measured by the frequency of sentinel chicken seroconversions. Mechanistic measures such as these are important for understanding how temperature affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission and for delineating risk estimates useful to inform vector control agency intervention decisions and communicate outbreak potential.

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Modeling Movement of West Nile Virus in the Western Hemisphere

Cited by 49 publications

References 15 publications

Vector host-feeding preferences drive transmission of multi-host pathogens: West Nile virus as a model system

Vector host-feeding preferences drive transmission of multi-host pathogens: West Nile virus as a model system

Importance of Bird-to-Bird Transmission for the Establishment of West Nile Virus

Effects of Temperature on Emergence and Seasonality of West Nile Virus in California

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