Modeling long‐distance dispersal of emerald ash borer in European Russia and prognosis of spread of this pest to neighboring countries within next 5 years

Abstract

AimTo develop an approach to model the spatial dynamics of emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in European Russia. This tree‐killing pest was detected in Moscow 15 years ago and began to spread, posing a threat to ashes all over Europe. The aim was to determine its probable current range and to evaluate the probability of its dispersal to neighboring countries within the next 5 years.LocationCities and transport hubs of European Russia and neighboring countries. Ash trees in this region occur mainly in urban plantations and along highways.MethodsPairwise distances between all locations were used as the main parameter determining the probability of pest spread. For each location, the probability of detection of A. planipennis was calculated using three simulation recurrent models of long‐distance dispersal. Parametrization was made by comparison with results of surveys in 2003–2015. Field data on the range of A. planipennis in 2016‐2017 were mapped and used for model verification. A prognosis of spread of the pest by 2022 was made.ResultsA model based on fat‐tailed kernel corresponds to both negative and positive results of surveys. According to the model, the current range is likely to be restricted to Russia, but probability of detection of the pest in the east of Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania by 2022 is 15%–40%.Main conclusionsThe forestry services of neighboring countries probably have about 5 years to prepare for the invasion of this pest, but regular surveys are necessary, since the pest can appear at any time. The case considered shows that the simple approach based on a fat‐tailed kernel and just one parameter—pairwise distance between cities—can be used for modeling long‐distance dispersal of alien pests of urban plantations.

Minimum Winter Temperature as a Limiting Factor of the Potential Spread of Agrilus planipennis, an Alien Pest of Ash Trees, in Europe

“…Agrilus planipennis is continuing to spread and will soon appear in other European countries [8,9]. It presents a serious threat to ash trees all over Europe [3,10], so it is included on the list of 20 priority quarantine pests of the EU [11].…”

Current range of Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, an alien pest of ash trees, in European Russia and Ukraine

“…By 2013 the pest was recorded in 9 regions of European Russia: from Yaroslavl in the north to Voronezh in the south (Straw et al 2013; Orlova-Bienkowskaja 2014a). The probabilistic model of spread has shown that in the next few years the range of A. planipennis can significantly expand, and the pest can appear in the neighboring countries (Orlova-Bienkowskaja and Bienkowski 2018a). The first aim of our study was to determine the current range of A. planipennis .…”

Temporal dynamics and drivers of landscape‐level spread by emerald ash borer

“…Distances between counties in Equation were calculated as described above. Similar models have been used to estimate propagule pressure and/or spread for EAB (Kovacs et al, 2010; Muirhead et al, 2006; Orlova‐Bienkowskaja & Bieńkowski, 2018).…”