Modeling lake outburst and downstream hazard assessment of the Lower Barun Glacial Lake, Nepal Himalaya

Sattar, Ashim; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Leonard, G. J.; Shugar, Dan H.; Chase, Donald V.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126208

Cited by 50 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Likewise, the failure time obtained by this study for 20 m breach is 3 hrs which significantly matches with the failure time displayed by Maskey et al (2020). A recent study has used the eight possible scenarios to model the GLOF in Lower-Barun Lake (Sattar et al 2021) and this study reported that the peak discharge from Lower-Barun GLOFs at current condition could be high as 20,810 m3/s, with flow depths and velocities reaching up to 29 m and 11 m/s, respectively, and can exert disastrous risk downstream (Sattar et al 2021). The places like Yangla Kharka, Pemathang, Barun Bazar, Gola, Arun III hydropower Project will be at great risk and could be fatal if GLOF at Lower-Barun Lake occurs.…”

Section: Glof Modellingsupporting

confidence: 83%

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Dynamics of Lower-Barun Glacier and Glacial Lake and its GLOF Susceptibility Using Geospatial Analysis and Modelling

et al. 2021

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Shrinkage of some of the glaciers has direct impacts on the formation and expansion of glacial lakes. Sudden glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major threat to lives and livelihoods downstream as they can cause catastrophic damage. In this study, we present the dynamics of the Lower-Barun glacier and glacial lakes and their GLOF susceptibility. We used multi temporal Landsat and Sentinel satellite imagery and extracted the lake outlines using the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) with manual post-correction while the glacier outline was digitized manually. Multi-criteria decision-based method was used to assess the GLOF susceptibility. For the estimation of peak discharge and failure time, an empirical model developed by Froelich (1995) was used. The surface area of the Lower-Barun glacial lake was increased by 86% in the last 40 yrs (from 1979 to 2018), with a mean increase of 0.0432 km2/yr. The shrinkage in the glacier area is around 0.49 km2/yr and has shrunk by 8% in the last four decades. The retreat of the Lower-Barun glacier was 0.20% per year in the last four decades. The susceptibility index was 0.94, which suggests that the lake is very highly susceptible to the GLOF. The peak discharge of 5768 m3/s is produced when the breach depth is 20 m and the entire water volume is released. Likewise, in the case of 15 m breach depth, the peak discharge of 4038 m3/s is formed. Breach depth scenario of 10 m, peak discharge of 2442 m3/s is produced and in case of breach depth of 5 m produces the peak discharge of 1034 m3/s. If GLOF occurs, it can exert disastrous impacts on the livelihood and infrastructure in the downstream. So, it is necessary to examine such lakes regularly and mitigation measures to lower the GLOF susceptibility should be emphasized.

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Section: Glof Modellingsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…The Barun valley has experienced at least two known GLOFs (USAID, 2014; Byers et al 2019;Sattar et al 2021). The first GLOF event was in 1964, not recorded but witnessed by local people (Yamada and Sharma, 1993).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of Lower-Barun Glacier and Glacial Lake and its GLOF Susceptibility Using Geospatial Analysis and Modelling

et al. 2021

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“…The Hydrological Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) is a professional software to carry out hydrological analysis, which was widely adopted in glacial hazard researches (Anacona et al, 2015;Satter et al, 2019;Nie et al, 2020;Sattar et al, 2021). It provides us with a platform to perform one-dimensional (1D) steady/unsteady and two-dimensional (2D) unsteady flow river hydraulics calculations (Brunner, 2010).…”

Section: Glof Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau—A Case Study of JiwenCo Glacial Lake

et al. 2022

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) is one of the main natural disasters in alpine areas, which can cause extreme destruction to downstream settlements and infrastructures. A moraine-dammed lake named JiwenCo glacial lake (JGL) in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau failed on 26 June 2020, destroying many buildings, roads, bridges, and farmlands along the flow path. We reconstructed the process of this GLOF event by the Hydrological Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and examined the JGL’s evolution (area, length, and volume) before its outburst, based on the measured cross sections and hydrological data, videos, and pictures taken by inhabitants, DEM data, and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)/Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+)/Operational Land Imager (OLI) images. The result showed that area, length, and volume of the JGL increased by 0.20 ± 0.07 km2, 0.66 ± 0.03 km, and 0.03 ± 0.001 km3 from 1988 to 2020 (before the outburst), respectively. Approximately 0.05 km3 of water volume was discharged with the dropped water level of 15.63 m after the outburst. The peak flow was 534.4 m3/s at breach and increased to 1,408.11 m3/s at Zhongyu town. The difference between the simulated and measured peak flows in Zhongyu town was 41.88 m3/s (3.53%), showing the high accuracy of the modeling results. For villages along the river-channel, the highest velocity was found in Yiga village (14.23 m/s) and the lowest was in Gongwa village (1.22 m/s). The maximum depth was gradually increased as the river reached downstream, 8.03 m in Yiga village and 50.96 m in Duiba village. The combination of landslide, high temperature, and extremely heavy precipitation resulted in this GLOF disaster. An integrated disaster prevention and mitigation plan needs to be developed for susceptible areas such as Niduzangbo basin that experienced two GLOFs in recent 10 years.

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“…Some methods have been proposed to assess the maximum event magnitude and the probability of occurrence for glacial hazards and applied it to a lake outburst with a subsequent debris flow (Huggel et al , 2004a, b; Sattar et al , 2021). Carey et al (2012) carried out a case study for interdisciplinary and historical analysis of glacier hazard management with the help of a socio-ecological framework.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing glacial lake outburst flood triggers for sustainable disaster risk mitigation: an interpretive structural modelling based approach

Trivedi

Chauhan

Singh

2021

MEQ

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PurposeClimate change and global warming pose a serious threat to the community as deglaciating environments trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The Sendai framework underpins the role of disaster risk reduction (DRR) for sustainable development, thereby calling for the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. This study aims to delineate the enablers of GLOF risk and establish a contextual relationship between them.Design/methodology/approachThe risk enablers are identified from the extant GLOF literature, and the experts from disaster management area are consulted to explore the underlying contextual relationship among them. An interpretive structural model is developed from the responses to analyze the contextual relationships among the risk enablers.FindingsThe interpretive structural modeling results manifest that seismic activity, temperature and precipitation events, and proximity are key drivers that trigger flash floods from the lakes and an effective assessment of these triggers may contribute significantly to GLOF risk mitigation.Originality/valueThe study models the complex relationship among the risk enablers for a glacial flood hazard that find commonality across all geographic contexts. The findings provide the practitioners of DRR useful insights into these factors and their subsequent impact on others, while conducting hazard assessment of glacial lakes that may contribute to the sustainable development of settlements lying downstream to glacial lakes.

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Modeling lake outburst and downstream hazard assessment of the Lower Barun Glacial Lake, Nepal Himalaya

Cited by 50 publications

References 73 publications

Dynamics of Lower-Barun Glacier and Glacial Lake and its GLOF Susceptibility Using Geospatial Analysis and Modelling

Dynamics of Lower-Barun Glacier and Glacial Lake and its GLOF Susceptibility Using Geospatial Analysis and Modelling

Simulation of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau—A Case Study of JiwenCo Glacial Lake

Analyzing glacial lake outburst flood triggers for sustainable disaster risk mitigation: an interpretive structural modelling based approach

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