Modeling Invasive Plant Species in Kenya’s Northern Rangelands

Ouko, Edward; Omondi, S.; Mugo, Robinson; Wahome, A. M.; Kasera, K.; Nkurunziza, Emmanuel; Kiema, John; Flores, Africa; Adams, Emily C.; Kuraru, Samson; Wambua, Margaret Mwikali

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2020.00069

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…A similar study by Ouko et al . [ 23 ] conducted within the northern rangeland areas including Nyeri County’s neighbor, Laikipia County, indicated a similar trend in potential habitat gain for this species, hence supporting the importance of performing habitat suitability in other areas. Although the number of presence records were limited for O .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

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Assessing distribution changes of selected native and alien invasive plant species under changing climatic conditions in Nyeri County, Kenya

2022

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The role of climate change in enhancing bio-invasions in natural environments needs to be assessed to provide baseline information for effective species management and policy formulations. In this study, potential habitat suitability maps were generated through Ecological Niche Modeling for five problematic alien and native species in current and future climate simulations for the periods 2050s and 2070s under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Projected current binary suitability maps showed that 67%, 40%, 28%, 68%, and 54% of the total study area ~ 3318 Km2 is suitable for C. decapetala, L. camara, O. stricta, S. didymobotrya and S. campylacanthum species, respectively. Assuming unlimited species dispersal, two of these species, C. decapetala and S. didymobotrya, were observed to have consistent gradual increase in potential habitats and no habitat losses under the three RCPs by the end of the 2050 and 2070 future periods. The highest recorded relative potential habitat increase was observed for O. stricta at ~205% under RCP2.6 and ~223% under RCP8.5. Although L. camara and O. stricta were observed to have habitat losses, the losses will be very low as compared to that of S. campylacanthum. L. camara and O. stricta relative habitat losses were predicted to be between ~1% under RCP2.6 to ~4.5% under RCP8.5 by 2070 while that of S. campylacanthum was between ~50% under RCP2.6 to ~68% under RCP8.5 by the year 2070. From this study we conclude that the target study species are expected to remain a big threat to inhabited areas as well as biodiversity hotspot areas especially in the Mt. Kenya and the Aberdare forest and national park reserves under climate change. The information generated through this study can be used to inform policy on prioritizing management of these species and subsequent determination of their absolute distributions within the area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…stricta has invaded about 17% of the area [ 22 ], and in the greater northern rangelands of Kenya, Opuntia spp. have been projected to increase in potential habitat range from ~183,000ha to ~206,900ha by the year 2070 [ 23 ]. In highland protected areas of Rwanda, A .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing distribution changes of selected native and alien invasive plant species under changing climatic conditions in Nyeri County, Kenya

2022

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“…Furthermore, the variables of temperature seasonality and isothermality contributed significantly in predicting the current and future distribution scenarios of Acacia reficiens and Opuntia spp. in Laikipia-Samburu, Kenya [86]. All these studies suggest that temperature variables contribute remarkably to the prediction of a species' exotic range.…”

Section: Habitat Suitability Range Through Maxent Modelingmentioning

confidence: 84%

Phenotypic, Geological, and Climatic Spatio-Temporal Analyses of an Exotic Grevillea robusta in the Northwestern Himalayas

et al. 2023

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The last five decades (since 1980) have witnessed the introduction of exotic trees as a popular practice in India to fulfill the demand of forest-based products for utilization in afforestation programmes. This study examines the distribution and habitat suitability of exotic Grevillea robusta trees in the northwestern Himalayas (state: Uttarakhand), focusing on the interaction between G. robusta and abiotic factors, such as climate, soil, and habitat suitability. This multipurpose agroforestry species is mainly grown by farmers as a boundary tree, windbreak, or shelterbelt and among intercrops on small farms in agroforestry systems worldwide. The results indicate that phenotypic plasticity is determined by tree height and diameter, indicating a higher frequency of young and adult trees. The study also highlights spatio-temporal modeling coupled with geological analysis to address the current distribution pattern and future habitat suitability range through MaxEnt modeling. The AUC ranged from 0.793 ± 3.6 (RCP 6.0_70) to 0.836 ± 0.008 (current) with statistical measures, such as K (0.216), NMI (0.240), and TSS (0.686), revealing the high accuracy of the model output. The variables, which include the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), the slope (Slo), the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio 9), and the precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio 17), contribute significantly to the prediction of the distribution of the species in the Himalayan state. The model predicts a significant habitat suitability range for G. robusta based on bio-climatic variables, covering an area of approximately ~1641 km2 with maximal occurrence in Pauri (~321 km2) and Almora (~317 km2). Notably, the future prediction scenario corroborates with the regions of Tons (Upper Yamuna, Uttarkashi), Kalsi (Mussoorie, Dehradun), the Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary, and the Badrinath Forest Division for the potentially suitable areas. The climate was found to have a strong influence on the species’ distribution, as evidenced by its correlation with the Köppen–Geiger climate classification (KGCC) map. While the species demonstrated adaptability, its occurrence showed a high correlation with bedrocks containing an elevated iron content. Furthermore, the study also provides the first trees outside forests (TOF) map of G. robusta in the region, as well as insight into its future habitat suitability.

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“…Many studies have focused on the original areas of introduction of the plant near Lake Turkana and Lake Baringo [17,[67][68][69] assessing its spread and its presence is confirmed also in Marsabit County [62,70,71]. Other invasive species found in the area are Calotropis Procera [72] Solanum species [73], Opuntia species [25,74]. The intended benefits of the introduction of alien species for greening purposes have been counteracted by their adverse impacts on the ecosystems and pastoral communities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Temporal Evaluation of Quantitative and Phenological Vegetation Dynamics Using Sentinel-2 Images in North Horr (Kenya)

et al. 2021

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According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Horn of Africa is getting drier. This research aims at assessing browning and/or greening dynamics and the suitability of Sentinel-2 satellite images to map changes in land cover in a semiarid area. Vegetation dynamics are assessed through a remote sensing approach based on densely vegetated areas in a pilot area of North Horr Sub-County, in northern Kenya, between 2016–2020. Four spectral vegetation indices are calculated from Sentinel-2 images to create annual multi-temporal images. Two different supervised classification methods—Minimum Distance and Spectral Angle Mapper—are then applied in order to identify dense vegetated areas. A general greening is found to have occurred in this period with the exception of the year 2020, with an average annual percentage increase of 19%. Results also highlight a latency between climatic conditions and vegetation growth. This approach is for the first time applied in North Horr Sub-County and supports local decision-making processes for sustainable land management strategies.

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Modeling Invasive Plant Species in Kenya’s Northern Rangelands

Cited by 10 publications

References 27 publications

Assessing distribution changes of selected native and alien invasive plant species under changing climatic conditions in Nyeri County, Kenya

Assessing distribution changes of selected native and alien invasive plant species under changing climatic conditions in Nyeri County, Kenya

Phenotypic, Geological, and Climatic Spatio-Temporal Analyses of an Exotic Grevillea robusta in the Northwestern Himalayas

Multi-Temporal Evaluation of Quantitative and Phenological Vegetation Dynamics Using Sentinel-2 Images in North Horr (Kenya)

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