Modeling innovation processes for decision support and management simulation

Milling, Peter

doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199623)12:3<211::aid-sdr105>3.0.co;2-8

Cited by 88 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…LEARN! , a complex management simulator with more than 2000 connected variables, was originally developed by an economics research group at the University of Mannheim (Germany) as a tool for testing economic theories (Milling, 1996; Größler et al, 2000; Maier and Größler, 2000). In the version applied by Wittmann et al (1996), participants have to manage a high-technology company competing with three others simulated by the computer.…”

Section: Part Ii: Review and Critique Of The Minimally Complex Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Cognitive Abilities and Prior Knowledge on Complex Problem Solving Performance – Empirical Results and a Plea for Ecologically Valid Microworlds

Süß

Kretzschmar

2018

Front. Psychol.

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The original aim of complex problem solving (CPS) research was to bring the cognitive demands of complex real-life problems into the lab in order to investigate problem solving behavior and performance under controlled conditions. Up until now, the validity of psychometric intelligence constructs has been scrutinized with regard to its importance for CPS performance. At the same time, different CPS measurement approaches competing for the title of the best way to assess CPS have been developed. In the first part of the paper, we investigate the predictability of CPS performance on the basis of the Berlin Intelligence Structure Model and Cattell’s investment theory as well as an elaborated knowledge taxonomy. In the first study, 137 students managed a simulated shirt factory (Tailorshop; i.e., a complex real life-oriented system) twice, while in the second study, 152 students completed a forestry scenario (FSYS; i.e., a complex artificial world system). The results indicate that reasoning – specifically numerical reasoning (Studies 1 and 2) and figural reasoning (Study 2) – are the only relevant predictors among the intelligence constructs. We discuss the results with reference to the Brunswik symmetry principle. Path models suggest that reasoning and prior knowledge influence problem solving performance in the Tailorshop scenario mainly indirectly. In addition, different types of system-specific knowledge independently contribute to predicting CPS performance. The results of Study 2 indicate that working memory capacity, assessed as an additional predictor, has no incremental validity beyond reasoning. We conclude that (1) cognitive abilities and prior knowledge are substantial predictors of CPS performance, and (2) in contrast to former and recent interpretations, there is insufficient evidence to consider CPS a unique ability construct. In the second part of the paper, we discuss our results in light of recent CPS research, which predominantly utilizes the minimally complex systems (MCS) measurement approach. We suggest ecologically valid microworlds as an indispensable tool for future CPS research and applications.

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Section: Part Ii: Review and Critique Of The Minimally Complex Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Cognitive Abilities and Prior Knowledge on Complex Problem Solving Performance – Empirical Results and a Plea for Ecologically Valid Microworlds

Süß

Kretzschmar

2018

Front. Psychol.

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“…They give insights concerning the influence of innovators or imitators on the diffusion process. Milling () or Sterman () provided a feedback‐oriented interpretation of the Bass model consisting of a balancing feedback loop B1 (advertising) and a reinforcing loop R1 (word‐of‐mouth). The model in system dynamics stock‐and‐flow notion as well as its behavior over time for the stock ‘X Adopters’ is shown in Figure .…”

Section: A Diffusion Model Of System Dynamics With Network Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are We Surrounded by Penguins? The Diffusion of System Dynamics in Academia Analysed with System Dynamics

Thun

Strohhecker

2012

Syst. Res.

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This paper investigates the diffusion of system dynamics as research paradigm for academics. It deals with the question whether the diffusion process of system dynamics is influenced by network externalities. The so‐called penguin effect and bandwagon effect have an impact on the diffusion process assuming the existence of such network externalities. Based on a system dynamics model building on the well‐established bass model, leverage points for a successful diffusion of system dynamics will be derived by incorporating network externalities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…System dynamics has been used to understand the diffusion process at an aggregate level in a number of previous studies (Milling 1996;Maier 1998) and to specifically explore the diffusion of telecommunications (Osborne, 1999). The particular value of system dynamics in modelling the diffusion process stems from the large number of factors that influence a potential customer"s decision to adopt a product.…”

Section: Simulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the drivers of broadband adoption: the case of rural and remote Scotland

Howick

Whalley

2008

Journal of the Operational Research Society

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Broadband has been described as a transforming technology and is now widely available in many developed countries. However, broadband availability is not the same as broadband adoption. If the socio-economic benefits of broadband are to be realised, then adoption needs to be both understood and encouraged. This is particularly important in rural and remote areas. This paper explores the factors that drive broadband adoption in one particular rural and remote area; rural and remote Scotland. A causal model and a quantitative simulation model are developed indicating how the various drivers of adoption interact with one another. Both models show that past policy initiatives have impacted on the rate of adoption. However, the greatest impact could be achieved if future policy initiatives target those people who show no interest in adopting broadband. The paper concludes by suggesting that this work has implications for rural and remote areas all around the world.

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Modeling innovation processes for decision support and management simulation

Cited by 88 publications

References 27 publications

Impact of Cognitive Abilities and Prior Knowledge on Complex Problem Solving Performance – Empirical Results and a Plea for Ecologically Valid Microworlds

Impact of Cognitive Abilities and Prior Knowledge on Complex Problem Solving Performance – Empirical Results and a Plea for Ecologically Valid Microworlds

Are We Surrounded by Penguins? The Diffusion of System Dynamics in Academia Analysed with System Dynamics

Understanding the drivers of broadband adoption: the case of rural and remote Scotland

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