Modeling ice dynamic contributions to sea level rise from the Antarctic Peninsula

Schannwell, Clemens; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Radić, Valentina

doi:10.1002/2015jf003667

Cited by 3 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…As the SIA is not valid for floating ice shelves (Hutter, 1983), only the grounded ice sheet is simulated and grounding-line retreat is parameterised through a statistical model. In response to ice-shelf collapse, this model scales the expected retreat of the grounding line to the amount of buttressing at the ice front of each drainage basin (Schannwell et al, 2016). Ice-shelf buttressing was computed from the output of an ice-sheet model inversion (Arthern et al, 2015).…”

Section: Ice-sheet Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Ice shelf break-up and disintegration events over the past 5 decades have led to speed-up, thinning, and retreat of upstream tributary glaciers and increases to rates of global sea-level rise. The southward progression of these episodes indicates a climatic cause and in turn suggests that the larger Larsen C and George VI ice shelves may undergo a similar collapse in the future. However, the extent to which removal of the Larsen C and George VI ice shelves will affect upstream tributary glaciers and add to global sea levels is unknown. Here we apply numerical ice-sheet models of varying complexity to show that the centennial sea-level commitment of Larsen C embayment glaciers following immediate shelf collapse is low (<2.5 mm to 2100, <4.2 mm to 2300). Despite its large size, Larsen C does not provide strong buttressing forces to upstream basins and its collapse does not result in large additional discharge from its tributary glaciers in any of our model scenarios. In contrast, the response of inland glaciers to a collapse of the George VI Ice Shelf may add up to 8 mm to global sea levels by 2100 and 22 mm by 2300 due in part to the mechanism of marine ice sheet instability. Our results demonstrate the varying and relative importance to sea level of the large Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves considered to present a risk of collapse.

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Section: Ice-sheet Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Grey shading displays uncertainty associated with SLR projections from BAS-APISM. Uncertainties are quantified by a Monte Carlo simulation (seeSchannwell et al, 2016). Note the different y axis scales.…”

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confidence: 99%

Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

et al. 2018

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“…Owing to their short response times to ice dynamical perturbations (e.g. ice-shelf removal) in comparison to the rest of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (Barrand et al, 2013a), AP glaciers are projected to play an important role in the global SLR budget over the next century (Barrand et al, 2013a;Schannwell et al, 2015). Hitherto, ice-sheet modelling studies of the AP have focused on SLR projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers, ignoring any contributions from tidewater glaciers (Barrand et al, 2013a;Schannwell et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ice-shelf removal) in comparison to the rest of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (Barrand et al, 2013a), AP glaciers are projected to play an important role in the global SLR budget over the next century (Barrand et al, 2013a;Schannwell et al, 2015). Hitherto, ice-sheet modelling studies of the AP have focused on SLR projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers, ignoring any contributions from tidewater glaciers (Barrand et al, 2013a;Schannwell et al, 2015). Given the observed acceleration and retreat of most tidewater glaciers (Cook et al, 2005;Pritchard and Vaughan, 2007), this may lead to a substantial underestimation of the SLR contribution from the AP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

Schannwell

Barrand

Radić

2016

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

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Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years.As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. In this paper, the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. An ice-sheet model forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs), in response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), projects AP contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dom-

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“…Water height in surface crevasses (d w in Equation 4) is computed from biased-corrected CMIP5 model projections to 2300 from 10 the model selection presented in Schannwell et al (2015). The bias-correction and melt computation approach follows Trusel et al (2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

Schannwell

Cornford

Pollard

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Ice shelf break-up and disintegration events over the past several decades have led to speed-up, thinning, and retreat of upstream tributary glaciers and increases to rates of global sea-level rise. The southward progression of these episodes indicates a climatic cause, and in turn suggests that the larger Larsen C and George VI ice shelves may undergo similar collapse in future. However, the extent to which removal of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves will affect upstream tributary glaciers and add to global sea levels is unknown. Here we apply numerical ice-sheet models of varying complexity to show that 5 the centennial sea-level commitment of Larsen C embayment glaciers following immediate shelf collapse is low (<2.5 mm to 2100, <4.3 mm to 2300). Despite its large size, Larsen C does not provide strong buttressing forces to upstream basins and its collapse does not result in large additional discharge from its tributary glaciers in any of our model scenarios. In contrast, the response of inland glaciers to collapse of George VI Ice Shelf may add up to 8 mm to global sea levels by 2100 and 22 mm by 2300 due in part to the mechanism of marine ice sheet instability. Our results demonstrate the varying and relative importance 10 to sea level of the large Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves considered to present a risk of collapse.

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Modeling ice dynamic contributions to sea level rise from the Antarctic Peninsula

Cited by 3 publications

References 84 publications

Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

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