Modeling future water footprint of barley production in Alberta, Canada: Implications for water use and yields to 2064

Masud, M. B.; McAllister, Tim A.; Cordeiro, Marcos R. C.; Faramarzi, Monireh

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.004

Cited by 49 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…A total of 2255 sub-basins were delineated for Alberta [23], however, in this study we extracted the sub-basins that are located within the agricultural region. An extensive calibration and validation of the hydrologic and crop models were conducted [20,21,23]. Two statistical measures were used to quantify the goodness-of-fit and model output uncertainty using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) program.…”

Section: The Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two statistical measures were used to quantify the goodness-of-fit and model output uncertainty using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) program. The SUFI-2 program is linked to SWAT and provides the basis for parallel processing of calibration and large-scale parameterization schemes [20,21,23]. Two statistical measures are p-factor, which is the percentage of observed data bracketed by the model outputs uncertainty, quantified as 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and r-factor, which is the average thickness of the 95PPU band, were used to check the model performance during calibration and validation.…”

Section: The Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two statistical measures are p-factor, which is the percentage of observed data bracketed by the model outputs uncertainty, quantified as 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and r-factor, which is the average thickness of the 95PPU band, were used to check the model performance during calibration and validation. The 95PPU is calculated at 2.5% and 97.5% levels of the cumulative distribution of an output variable [20,21,23]. The r-factor is the average width of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed variable.…”

Section: The Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ET was simulated by SWAT agro-hydrologic models for dominant land use (ET_DLU) and barley crop (ET_barley) for His period [20,21]. These two ET were used for comparison of the water demand differences in a county for two land use types.…”

Section: Potential Land Use Type and Water Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Larger r-factor in the crop model might be due to climate variability and unreliable precipitation distribution in Alberta, and this has increased standard deviation as well as the thickness of the uncertainty band. Detailed performance results of the hydrological and crop simulation models can be found in Faramarzi et al [20] and Masud et al [21], respectively.…”

Section: The Swat Model Performancementioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Hydrological Variables in the Agricultural Region of Alberta, Canada

Masud

Ferdous

Faramarzi

2018

Water

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The responses of regional hydrological variables to climate change are of prime concern for agricultural water resources planning and management. Therefore, the seasonal (April–September) and annual (January–December) evolution of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), deep aquifer recharge (DA), and water yield (WYLD) was investigated using established statistical techniques for the historical, near and far future (1983–2007: His, 2010–2034: NF, 2040–2064: FF) in the agricultural region of Alberta, Canada. Previously calibrated and validated agro-hydrological models (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to generate these variables. Future changes were investigated under two representative concentration pathways, i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, projected by nine global climate models (GCM). Results revealed that Alberta had become warmer and drier during the His period. The future projection showed an increase in precipitation, SM, DA, and WYLD, in turn, indicated more water resources. Precipitation and temperature were projected to increase between 1 to 7% and 1.21 to 2.32 °C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation showed a higher trend magnitude than that of annual precipitation. The temperature generally had an increasing trend in the future with a maximum in the southern Alberta. Monthly average ET was likely to increase and decrease in the rising and falling limbs of the bell-shaped curve with the peak in July. A comparison of water demand from two land use types (dominant land use and barley) during the His period showed that water deficit existed in July and August. The results of this study could help in understanding anticipated changes in hydrological variables and decision-making regarding the regional agricultural water resources management.

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Section: The Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Potential Land Use Type and Water Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Swat Model Performancementioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Hydrological Variables in the Agricultural Region of Alberta, Canada

Masud

Ferdous

Faramarzi

2018

Water

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Spring barley yield and potential northward expansion under climate change in Canada

Jégo,

Crépeau,

Jing

et al. 2023

Agronomy Journal

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Spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), being a cold‐tolerant crop may not benefit as much from a warmer climate and a lengthening of the growing season due to climate change though its suitable production area could expand further north. The objectives of this study were to assess the impact of climate change on barley yields across Canada for both current production regions and potential northern crop expansion regions in the future. Three crop models (DNDC, DSSAT and STICS) and 18 climate scenarios (1981‐2100) were used to simulate the effect of climate change on potential (non‐water and non‐nitrogen limited) and rainfed (non‐nitrogen limited) spring barley yields for 32 locations across Canada. For the currently planted spring barley regions characterized by a humid summer in Eastern Canada (growing season precipitation > 500 mm), potential and rainfed yields were projected to slightly increase in future (<+0.2 t ha−1). In western regions where precipitation amount is lower (growing season precipitation <500 mm), changes in the potential yield varied slightly (‐0.1 to +0.2 t ha−1) while the rainfed yield was projected to increase (0.2 to 1.0 t ha−1) mainly due to a reduction in water stress under elevated CO2. Finally, in northern regions where future expansion may occur, projected yield increases were generally large (up to 2.8 t ha−1 for potential yield), but the risk of crop failure usually remained high. Our findings suggest that future climate change will present both opportunities and regionalized risks for spring barley producers with the potential to further expand barley production northward.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

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Performance of multivariate and multiscalar drought indices in identifying impacts on crop production

Masud

Qian

Faramarzi

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The assessment of drought characteristics often depends on drought indices, geographic location, hydro‐climatic condition, and timescale. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought events using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). We developed a novel framework using hydro‐climatic variables from a high‐resolution process‐based hydrologic model to understand factors that alter drought indices at various timescales, and their impact on crop yields in a large agricultural region of western Canada. These indices were used to quantify droughts for each month of the year by examining 1–12‐month drought timescales in 2255 sub‐basins, simulated in 17 main river basins across Alberta, for 1981–2017. Temporal variations of the Standardized Yield Residuals Series (SYRS) of three major cereal crops (spring wheat, barley, and canola) were analysed for 1981–2017. Drought characteristics resulting from two indices varied due to differences in the input variables and timescales. The MSDI‐based results showed more frequent droughts during the fall and winter for shorter timescales, while the SPEI‐based results showed more during spring and summer. Comparing drought frequencies at the decadal scale, we found more droughts during 1996–2005 than during 1986–1995 and 2006–2015. The spatial evolution of drought events based on the MSDI showed more sub‐basins with increasing dryness during the study period than did results from the SPEI. The relationship between detrended drought indices and the SYRS varied depending on timescale, geographic location, and growth stage of crops. Overall, both indices performed similarly for agricultural impact assessment; however, the MSDI performed better early in the growing season for wheat and barley, indicating high crop production sensitivity to soil moisture deficiency.

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Modeling future water footprint of barley production in Alberta, Canada: Implications for water use and yields to 2064

Cited by 49 publications

References 47 publications

Projected Changes in Hydrological Variables in the Agricultural Region of Alberta, Canada

Projected Changes in Hydrological Variables in the Agricultural Region of Alberta, Canada

Spring barley yield and potential northward expansion under climate change in Canada

Performance of multivariate and multiscalar drought indices in identifying impacts on crop production

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