Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

Abstract

a b s t r a c tThis paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a more detailed representation of U.S. regional timber supply and wood residue markets. Scenarios were analyzed with USFPM/GFPM ranging from a baseline 48% increase to a 173% increase in annual U.S. consumption of wood for energy from 2006 to 2030, while consumption of fuelwood in other countries was assumed to increase by around 65% in aggregate. Results indicate that expansion in wood energy consumption across the range of scenarios may have little impact on U.S. forest sector markets because most of the expansion can be supplied by logging residues that are presently not being utilized and also mill residues that will increase in supply with projected expansion in wood product output in the decades ahead. However, analysis also suggests that forest sector markets could be disrupted by expansion in wood energy if much higher levels of wood energy consumption occur, or if projected recovery in housing demand and wood product output does not occur, or if more restrictive constraints or higher costs are imposed on wood residue utilization.

Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy

“…For example, there is a set of US models (Ince et al 2011;Daigneault et al 2012) and a set of EU models (Moiseyev et al 2011;Lauri, et al 2012) all of which confirm these results. It is also clear that this increase in forestland will cause overall carbon sequestration rates to increase (Malmsheimer et al 2011;Havlík et al 2011;Daigneault et al 2012;Sedjo and Tian 2012).…”

“…There are no studies in the literature which combine these three aspects in one analysis on woody biomass. Some are region-specific (Ince et al 2011;Moiseyev et al 2011;Daigneault et al 2012;Lauri, et al 2012). Others use a static approach (Raunikar et al 2010;Buongiorno et al 2011).…”

“…Buongiorno et al (2011) used the biomass energy projections developed for IPCC for the story line A1B and RPA forest assessment. Ince et al (2011) used the biomass energy demand from the US Department of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 2010. Moiseyev et al (2011) used the biomass energy projections developed for IPCC for the story lines A1 and B2 story lines.…”

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

“…For the timber sector, the value of diversification as a risk management strategy for communities is open to question. Ince et al (2011) pointed out that the forest sector operates in an international market and is susceptible to changes in the structure of this market. In the US forest sector, globalization has accelerated structural change, favouring larger and more capital-intensive enterprises and altering historical patterns of resource use.…”

“…Local forestry practices are often based on an implicit assumption that local climate conditions will remain constant (Guariguata et al 2008). Other social and economic changes will also continue to drive changes in forest management (Ince et al 2011). For example, a growing global population, rapid economic development and increased wealth are driving demand for food and fibre crops and forest conversion to agriculture in many developing countries (Gibbs et al 2010).…”