Modeling for external stakeholder risk assessment of project portfolios

Abstract

PurposeExternal stakeholder risks (ESRs) caused by unfavorable behaviors hinder the success of project portfolios (PPs). However, due to complex project dependency and numerous risk causality in PPs, assessing ESRs is difficult. This research aims to solve this problem by developing an ESR-PP two-layer fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) model.Design/methodology/approachA two-layer FBN model for evaluating ESRs with risk causality and project dependency is proposed. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) of an ESR-PP network is first constructed, and the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the two-layer network are further presented. Next, based on the fuzzy Bayesian network, key variables and the impact of ESRs are assessed and analyzed by using GeNIe2.3. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate and verify the application of the proposed model.FindingsThe proposed model is a useable and effective approach for ESR assessment while considering risk causality and project dependency in PPs. The impact of ESRs on PP can be calculated to determine whether to control risk, and the most critical and heavily contributing risks and project(s) in the developed model are identified based on this.Originality/valueThis study extends prior research on PP risk in terms of stakeholders. ESRs that have received limited attention in the past are explored from an interaction perspective in the PP domain. A new two-layer FBN model considering risk causality and project dependency is proposed, which can synthesize different dependencies between projects.

Quality Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Steel Structural Components during Production Using Fuzzy Bayesian Networks: A Case Study in China

“…These linguistic variables are then converted into specific fuzzy numbers, with detailed divisions of fuzzy probability intervals outlined in Table 3. Subsequently, the SAM (Bai et al, 2024;Hsi-Mei Hsu & Chen-Tung Chen, 1996;Lu et al, 2023) aggregates assessments from various experts. The defuzzification of fuzzy numbers, a crucial step in decision-making, is carried out using the CoA method (Runkler & Glesner, 1993;Varghese et al, 2012) along with formulas (4) and ( 5) (P. Chen et al, 2022;Onisawa, 1990;Van Laarhoven & Pedrycz, 1983).…”

External stakeholder risk response strategies selection in project portfolio

“…Hence, researching stakeholders and managing their associated risks represents a crucial and indispensable step in the execution of a project. Currently, many researchers have studied stakeholder risk [ 27 ] from the perspectives of a single project and PP.…”

“…Regarding ESR assessment, Bai, Kang et al [ 27 ] constructed a Bayesian network (BN) model by considering risk interaction and project dependency. Although they considered stakeholder risk assessment in PP, the risk management process is inadequate without considering risk responses [ 34 ].…”

“…The probability of occurrence and sensitivity of risks could be classified into several levels using the Probability-Sensitivity Matrix for risk assessment. The ESRs-PP BN model proposed by Bai, Kang et al [ 27 ] for ESRs assessment is suitable for estimating the probability and sensitivity level of ESRs, given the alignment of their research focus with the current study. Based on this, risks with higher probability and sensitivity are selected as key risks.…”

“…The arc directing from to shows that depends on . The procedure for modeling different types of project dependencies could be referred to Bai et al [ 27 ]. A directed arc from the risk node to the project node signifies that the occurrence of the ESR will impact the project.…”