Modeling effects of travel time reliability on mode choice using cumulative prospect theory

Ghader, Sepehr; Darzi, Aref; Zhang, Lei

doi:10.1016/j.trc.2019.09.014

Cited by 63 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Travelers' choice between private car and ridehailing needs to be analyzed at the psychological level. e choice of travel mode is unpredictable because of risk and uncertainty of information [28]. At the same time, travelers always want to maximize their own interests when they travel.…”

Section: Rational Choice Eory and Prospect Eorymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Ride-Hailing Services on Private Car Use in Urban Areas: An Examination in Chinese Cities

Zhong

Lin

Yang

2020

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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The rapid development of internet-based ride-hailing services has contributed to transportation in cities and, at the same time, has significantly impacted existing travel modes in cities. A question has emerged as to whether and to what extent ride-hailing services replace private car use. Although the private car is convenient, comfortable, and flexible, it has low utilization rate and high maintenance and parking costs. Better understanding of the relationship between ride-hailing services and the use of private cars has been brought to the forefront for auto dealers and urban transportation policymakers. However, controversies remain regarding how ride-hailing services will impact the use of private cars in cities. Given this setting, our study applied a difference-in-differences method to analyze the impact of ride-hailing services on the use of private cars with balanced panel data from 109 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2016. Moreover, we employed some methods to verify the robustness of the preliminary results. The empirical results show that ride-hailing services had a negative impact on the use of private cars in urban areas. Over time, the negative impact initially strengthened and then weakened. Further studies showed that ride-hailing services had a more significant negative impact on private car use in eastern cities than in western cities. The results showed that the influence of ride-hailing services on private car use in urban areas is heterogeneous across time and cities.

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Section: Rational Choice Eory and Prospect Eorymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Ride-Hailing Services on Private Car Use in Urban Areas: An Examination in Chinese Cities

Zhong

Lin

Yang

2020

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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“…This situation is one of the sources of uncertainty in travel times, which increases the overall price of travel more than an increase in the standard waiting time. It is because greater variability in travel times is negatively valued by travellers, as shown by a growing body of research on the valuation of travel time variability and reliability [34]- [37].…”

Section: Level Of Crowdingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Evaluating Factors Affecting Bus Service Reliability: A Big and Smart Data Implementation

et al. 2020

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Service quality is a significant concern for both providers and users of public transportation. It is crucial for transit agencies to clearly recognize the causes of unreliability before adapting any improvement strategy. However, evaluation of main causes of bus service unreliability has not been investigated well. Existing studies have three main limitations in context of recognizing causes of service unreliability. First, public transport networks and traffic condition are highly complex systems and most of the existing models are not capable to accurately determine the relationship between service irregularity and impact factors. Second, definition of "Big data" has been neglected and most of the studies only focused on one source of large scale data set to determine the causes of unreliability. Third, bus service unreliability can impact the users" perception toward the public transport, significantly. It has been recommended by number of studies that bus service reliability should be evaluated from both service providers" and users" perspective. However, the impact of service unreliability from passengers" perception is not well investigated, yet. Consequently, we proposed a novel simulation-based sensitivity analysis to evaluating main causes of bus service unreliability using a combination of three different sources of big data. Moreover, for the first time we developed a simulation model in R studio which is an open source and powerful coding environment. According to the results, the level of reliability in Route U32 showed the highest sensitivity to headway variations. Waiting time can be decreased by 61% if only bus operators can reduce the headway variation by 25% of the actual observed data. Big gap and bus bunching could be almost disappeared by decreasing headway variations. Moreover, the terminal departure policy could significantly improve the passenger waiting time. Waiting time can be decreased by 36% when almost all the buses depart the terminal on-time.

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“…In research on travel choice behavior based on the cumulative prospect theory, many scholars choose the travel time, departure time and travel reliability as the travel reference points ( 35 , 36 ). However, few have considered the scenario of multiple reference points in travel.…”

Section: Modeling Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The travel time reference point can be determined according to travel time reliability. The reliability-based time reference point has been defined as ( 36 ): the probability that any OD pair ω in the network meets the minimum travel time t k ω min on the path k is not less than the reliability ρ . The minimum travel time meeting the reliability requirements is selected as the time reference point t 0 ω .…”

Section: Modeling Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Traffic Assignment Model and Algorithm Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory under Uncertain Factors

Guo

Zhang

2020

Transportation Research Record

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Current traffic assignment theories and methods are studied. To address the limitations of existing models and algorithms in solving the traffic assignment problems under uncertain supply and demand, a traffic assignment model based on the cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, the problem of uncertain supply and demand of the traffic network is described, and an improved traffic impedance function of road sections is proposed. Then, the reference point of generalized cost and the reference point of the dynamic section risk are set up, and the comprehensive cumulative prospect value function considering the preference coefficient of the reference point is given. A traffic assignment model based on the cumulative prospect theory is constructed, and an isolation niche genetic simulated annealing algorithm is designed to solve the model. Finally, with the highway traffic network in the Sichuan-Tibet region as an example, the process of network traffic equilibrium based on the cumulative prospect theory under the fixed and changing network structure is studied respectively, and parameter sensitivity and algorithm comparison are analyzed. The results show that the proposed traffic assignment model based on the cumulative prospect theory provides a good idea for solving the traffic assignment problem under uncertain supply and demand, and is of theoretical significance and application value.

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Modeling effects of travel time reliability on mode choice using cumulative prospect theory

Cited by 63 publications

References 35 publications

The Impact of Ride-Hailing Services on Private Car Use in Urban Areas: An Examination in Chinese Cities

The Impact of Ride-Hailing Services on Private Car Use in Urban Areas: An Examination in Chinese Cities

Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Evaluating Factors Affecting Bus Service Reliability: A Big and Smart Data Implementation

Research on Traffic Assignment Model and Algorithm Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory under Uncertain Factors

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