Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2018.01.025

Cited by 40 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…Furthermore, velocity strengthening (aseismic) behavior is often found in frictional experiments at shallow depths (Blanpied et al, ), in contrast to their observations in the Hutubi UGS region. Although shallow velocity strengthening patches may break during large ruptures as shown in numerical simulations (e.g., Yang et al, ; Yu et al, ), it is not anticipated that such regions would be seismically active. If indeed heterogeneous small velocity‐weakening patches are surrounded by the aseismic/creeping section, such as the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault, repeating earthquakes are likely observed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismological Investigations of Induced Earthquakes Near the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage Facility

et al. 2019

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The Hutubi underground gas storage facility in Xinjiang, China, with a maximum gas storage capacity of 10.7 billion m3, provides a good opportunity to study seismicity potentially induced by the annually cyclic injection and extraction of natural gas. To statistically distinguish induced seismicity from the tectonic background, we investigate the background seismicity probability of each event using the space‐time epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model and a stochastic declustering method. Our statistical results suggest a potential link between gas injection and two groups of seismicity, with very low background seismicity probabilities during the first and second injection periods in August 2013 and May 2014, respectively. To better understand the earthquake physics, we relocate earthquakes by incorporating a dedicated mobile seismic network after refining the regional 1D velocity model by utilizing an artificial source. After double‐difference relocations, those two groups of earthquakes move much closer to the faults bounding the rock storage units and are situated at a depth around 4 km, slightly deeper than the reservoir formation. Focal mechanism solutions of the two largest earthquakes (Mw 2.8 and 3.0) in August 2013 show a possibly unmapped reverse fault gently dipping to the south. Based on our high‐resolution earthquake locations, we propose that these on‐fault earthquakes are not hydrologically connected with the reservoir formation but are likely induced by poroelastic stress perturbations due to gas injection. Poroelastic stressing can have a larger impact on seismicity rate than pore pressure diffusion at large distances; hence, the distributions and sizes of preexisting faults might play a key role in seismic hazard assessments in our study region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismological Investigations of Induced Earthquakes Near the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage Facility

et al. 2019

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“…For example, a locked segment remains unbroken between the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule and 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, Chile earthquakes that ruptured a portion of the highly locked patch, respectively (Moreno et al, ; Yin et al, ). It is unclear whether the failure of breaking the locked segment during the past two megathrust ruptures was due to low stress or geometric changes on the megathrust (Bletery et al, ; Qiu et al, ; Yang et al, ; Yu et al, ). Detailed rupture histories in a locked segment are crucial for estimating future rupture potential and deriving detailed scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deriving Rupture Scenarios From Interseismic Locking Distributions Along the Subduction Megathrust

Yang

Yao

et al. 2019

JGR Solid Earth

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Given recent advances in geodetic data, interseismic locking models along the megathrust now become useful to qualitatively evaluate future earthquake potential. However, an individual earthquake's true rupture potential is challenging, as it depends on more than just a static image of prior locking. Here, we test the determinism of interseismic locking models using spontaneous rupture simulations and the well-resolved processes associated with the 2012 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.6 Nicoya earthquake. To do so, we estimate initial megathrust stress from locking by assuming that the entire slip deficit will be released in the next megathrust earthquake. Then we initiate spontaneous ruptures at the hypocenter of the 2012 Nicoya earthquake. We find scenarios that approximate the same coseismic slip distribution and final earthquake moment magnitude as obtained from seismic and geodetic observations, demonstrating that deriving potential rupture scenarios from interseismic locking is feasible. We also find that spontaneous rupture scenarios from different locking models differ in moment rate duration and thus ground motion prediction, although the final slip distribution and moment magnitude were similar. The results highlight that quantifying rupture scenarios and ground motions from reliable locking models by dynamic rupture simulations can be an effective tool for seismic hazard assessment in subduction zones. Key Points:• We conduct numerical simulations of rupture scenarios based on interseismic locking models • Our simulated earthquake scenario is well consistent with kinematic models of the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya earthquake • Details of rupture process and synthetic waveforms depend on the choice of the input locking model Supporting Information:• Supporting Information S1• Movie S1Note that the dynamic cohesive zone size is smaller than the static one (Day et al., 2005). Therefore, we tested mesh grid sizes of 400, 300, 250, and 200 m on the fault interface during dynamic rupture simulations. The results show that the final slip patterns are stable for 300, 250, and 200 m, while the slip amplitudes and moment magnitudes slightly differ ( Figure S2). Based on the grid size test, we select 250 m as the

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“…Several factors that could affect the estimations of d 0 were not considered in this study, such as geometrical roughness of fault, inelastic material properties, and different friction models. Irregular fault geometry could affect the rupture propagation and thus the ground waveforms (e.g., Wang et al, ; Yu et al, ). Here we used planar fault geometry as suggested by Hubbard et al ().…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraining Frictional Properties on Fault by Dynamic Rupture Simulations and Near‐Field Observations

Weng

Yang

2018

JGR Solid Earth

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Frictional properties of seismogenic faults play critical roles in earthquake generation and rupture propagation. Although laboratory measurements have well revealed the frictional parameters of a variety of rock samples, those on seismogenic faults remain difficult to determine due to the strong trade‐off between critical slip‐weakening distance (d0) and strength drop. Here we conduct dynamic rupture simulations to determine the frictional parameters on the fault where the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake occurred, with constraints from near‐field seismic and geodetic observations, and kinematic source models. By utilizing different trade‐off patterns of source parameters and multiple observations for the first time, we can determine the frictional parameters of the seismogenic fault. The best fit dynamic model yields a d0value of ~0.6 m, in contrast to the previous kinematical estimation of ~5 m (Galetzka et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac6383). The average fracture energy of this event is trueGC¯≃1.4×106 J/m2. Such approach can be used to determine the frictional parameters on seismogenic faults, which could serve for seismic hazard assessment by predicting ground motion from dynamic rupture simulations.

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Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

Cited by 40 publications

References 87 publications

Seismological Investigations of Induced Earthquakes Near the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage Facility

Seismological Investigations of Induced Earthquakes Near the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage Facility

Deriving Rupture Scenarios From Interseismic Locking Distributions Along the Subduction Megathrust

Constraining Frictional Properties on Fault by Dynamic Rupture Simulations and Near‐Field Observations

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