Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih‐hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan R.; Sugihara, George

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.12.003

Cited by 26 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Predator-prey relationships, population dynamics, environmental changes, and human impacts can all result in non-linearity in marine ecosystems (Liu et al, 2014). Given the significant changes in the fish community structure and related pressures, we can speculate that the relationships among them could be less linear After the collapse, resulting in lower explanatory power because RDA is based on linear regression.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explanatory Power of Human and Environmental Pressures on the Fish Community of the Grand Bank before and after the Biomass Collapse

et al. 2018

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Ecosystem based fisheries management will benefit from assessment of how various pressures affect the fish community, including delayed responses. The objective of this study was to identify which pressures are most directly related to changes in the fish community of the Grand Bank, Northwest Atlantic. These changes are characterized by a collapse and partial recovery of fish biomass and shifting trophic structure over the past three decades. All possible subsets of nine fishing and environmental pressure indicators were evaluated as predictors of the fish community structure (represented by the biomasses of six fish functional-feeding groups), for periods Before (1985Before ( -1995 and After (1996After ( -2013) the collapse, and the Full time series. We modeled these relationships using redundancy analysis, an extension of multiple linear regression that simultaneously evaluates the effect of one or more predictors on several response variables. The analysis was repeated with different lengths (0-5 years) and types (moving average vs. lags) of time delays imposed on the predictors. Both fishing and environmental indicators were included in the best models for all types and length of time delays, reinforcing that there is no single type of pressure impacting the fish community in this region. Results show notable differences in the most influential pressures Before and After the collapse, which reflects the changes in harvester behavior in response to the groundfish moratoria in the mid-1990s. The best models for Before the collapse had strikingly high explanatory power when compared to the other periods, which we speculate is because of changes in the relationships among and within the pressures and responses. Moving average predictor sets generally had higher explanatory power than lagged sets, implying that trends in pressures are important for predicting changes in the fish community. Assigning a carefully chosen delay to each predictor further improved the explanatory power, which is indicative of the complexity of interactions between pressures and responses. Here we add to the current understanding of this ecosystem, while demonstrating a method for selecting pressures that could be useful to scientists and managers in other ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explanatory Power of Human and Environmental Pressures on the Fish Community of the Grand Bank before and after the Biomass Collapse

et al. 2018

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“…The ephemeral nature of environment–recruitment relationships can reflect the presence of non‐linear dynamics and weak coupling among variables, both of which are typically not amenable to modeling through linear (additive) statistical methods (Hsieh et al ., ; Sugihara et al ., ; Glaser et al ., ; Clark et al ., ). As an alternative to parametric empirical analysis, non‐parametric approaches are demonstratively useful in detecting ecological interactions (Perretti et al ., ; Glaser et al ., ; Liu et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Non‐parametric modeling reveals environmental effects on bluefin tuna recruitment in Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans

Harford

Karnauskas

Walter

et al. 2017

Fisheries Oceanography

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Environment–recruitment relationships can be difficult to delineate with parametric statistical models and can be prone to misidentification. We use non‐parametric time‐series modeling which makes no assumptions about functional relationships between variables, to reveal environmental influences on early life stages of bluefin tuna and demonstrate improvement in prediction of subsequent recruitment. The influence of sea surface temperature, which has been previously associated with larval growth and survival, was consistently detected in recruitment time series of bluefin tuna stocks that spawn in the Mediterranean Sea, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. Short time series for the Gulf of Mexico stock may have precluded a clear determination of environmental influences on recruitment fluctuations. Because the non‐parametric approach does not require specification of equations to represent system dynamics, predictive models can likely be developed that appropriately reflect the complexity of the ecological system under investigation. This flexibility can potentially overcome methodological challenges of specifying structural relationships between environmental conditions and fish recruitment. Consequently, there is potential for non‐parametric time series modeling to supplement traditional stock recruitment models for fisheries management.

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“…Zooplankton timing changes are strongly associated with climate and water temperature anomalies (Mackas and Beaugrand, 2010). The dynamics of marine fishes are tightly related to lower trophic levels and the environment (Liu et al, 2014). The apparent temperature-dependent growth of Neocalanus in the NCC may adjust the zooplankton seasonal timing (date of peak abundance and biomass) as the PDO sign alters, which may cause significant influences on the upper trophic levels, such as fishes and seabirds.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-scale forcing of environmental conditions on subarctic copepods in the northern California Current system

Liu

Peterson

2015

Progress in Oceanography

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Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

Cited by 26 publications

References 39 publications

Explanatory Power of Human and Environmental Pressures on the Fish Community of the Grand Bank before and after the Biomass Collapse

Explanatory Power of Human and Environmental Pressures on the Fish Community of the Grand Bank before and after the Biomass Collapse

Non‐parametric modeling reveals environmental effects on bluefin tuna recruitment in Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans

Large-scale forcing of environmental conditions on subarctic copepods in the northern California Current system

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