“…The subjective prior model probabilities can be directly obtained through expert elicitation. The expert elicitation has been applied to many studies, for example, future climate change (Arnell et al, 2005;Miklas et al, 1995), performance assessment of proposed nuclear waste repositories (Hora and Jensen, 2005;McKenna et al, 2003;Draper et al, 1999;Hora and von Winterfeldt, 1997;Zio and Apostolakis, 1996;Morgan and Keith, 1995;DeWispelare et al, 1995;Bonano and Apostolakis, 1991;Bonano et al, 1990), estimation of parameter distributions (Parent and Bernier, 2003;Geomatrix Consultants, 1998;O'Hagan, 1998), development of Bayesian network (Pike, 2004;Stiber et al, 1999Stiber et al, , 2004Ghabayen et al, 2006), and interpretation of seismic images (Bond et al, 2007). Formal expert elicitation processes have been proposed by Hora and Iman (1989) and Keeney and von Winterfeldt (1991), among others.…”