Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Milkweeds and the Monarch Butterfly in Idaho

Svancara, Leona K.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Waterbury, Beth

doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00168

Cited by 17 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…The overall average test MaxEnt background/presence AUC bgp for the four milkweed species niche models was 0.87 (range 0.81 to 0.90), which was very similar to the average of test AUC bgp values of 0.86 (range 0.76-0.91) reported for the western ranges of 13 milkweeds by Dilts et al (2019), but lower than the test AUC bgp values of 0.98 and 0.93 reported for the Idaho ranges of two milkweeds by Svancara et al (2019). Our values of test AUC bgp were 5-8% lower than pseudoabsence AUC psa , and this was probably a result of lower false negative error rates that would arise in AUC psa since the pseudoabsence data were buffered 20-km from presence points.…”

Section: Niche Modelingsupporting

confidence: 75%

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Distribution, phenology, and land cover preference risk assessments of four South-Central US milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) important for monarch butterflies

Tracy

Kantola²,

Coulson

2021

Preprint

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South-Central US milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) are critical adult nectar and larval food resources for producing the first spring and last summer/fall generations of declining eastern migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus). MaxEnt niche models were developed for North American ranges of four important South-Central US milkweeds: Asclepias asperula ssp. capricornu, A. viridis, A. oenotheroides, and A. latifolia. Twelve models per species utilized subsets of six to eight of 95 edapho-topo-climatic variables chosen by a random subset feature selection algorithm. Milkweed weekly phenology was compared between early and late season periods of monarch activity. Novel land cover preference risk assessments were developed for milkweeds through land cover utilization-availability analyses, incorporating a novel sample bias reduction method for citizen science data before calculation of relativized electivity index (E*) land cover preference. Asclepias a. ssp. capricornu and A. viridis occurred more frequently during early season monarch activity, while A. oenotheroides and A. latifolia occurred more frequently during late season monarch activity. Milkweed utilization of roadsides varied from 6–31%. Developed-Open Space and Grassland Herbaceous land classes generally had highest benefit among milkweeds. Cultivated Crops and Shrub/Scrub had high risk. Combined milkweed high Ei* kernel density estimation surfaces resolved interior and coastal corridors of milkweed land cover preference providing functional connectivity for the monarch spring and fall migrations. A potentially critical gap in milkweed land cover benefit connectivity was identified in South Texas. Milkweed land cover preference risk assessments can be used to prioritize milkweed habitat conservation for enhancing monarch migration connectivity across the South-Central US.

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Section: Niche Modelingsupporting

confidence: 75%

“…asperula, spider milkweed) in the western US. Svancara et al (2019) developed current and future climate MaxEnt niche models for A. speciosa (showy milkweed) and A. incarnata (swamp milkweed) in Idaho. Kass et al (2020) found that combined stacked climatic niche models of 20 Asclepias spp.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution, phenology, and land cover preference risk assessments of four South-Central US milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) important for monarch butterflies

Tracy

Kantola²,

Coulson

2021

Preprint

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“…Recent climatic shifts, particularly warmer, wetter temperatures during breeding season and warmer temperatures during pupal overwintering season, have allowed P. cresphontes to rapidly expand northward to now match or even surpass the slower moving northward range expansion of the northernmost host plant, Z. americanum, with further northward expansion of P. cresphontes now limited by host plant range, not climate (Figure 4). Our results highlight the importance of including biotic interactions (and interactions between herbivorous insects and host plants in particular) in examinations of range shifts and their speed, an idea often highlighted, (Urban et al, 2016) but infrequently implemented (Lemoine, 2015;Dilts et al, 2019;Svancara et al, 2019). Poleward range shifts in herbivorous insects, particularly butterflies, have been documented for a number of species (Parmesan et al, 1999;Warren et al, 2001;Pöyry et al, 2009;Breed et al, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Climate Change and Local Host Availability Drive the Northern Range Boundary in the Rapid Expansion of a Specialist Insect Herbivore, Papilio cresphontes

et al. 2021

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Species distributions, abundance, and interactions have always been influenced by human activity and are currently experiencing rapid change. Biodiversity benchmark surveys traditionally require intense human labor inputs to find, identify, and record organisms limiting the rate and impact of scientific enquiry and discovery. Recent emergence and advancement of monitoring technologies have improved biodiversity data collection to a scale and scope previously unimaginable. Community science web platforms, smartphone applications, and technology assisted identification have expedited the speed and enhanced the volume of observational data all while providing open access to these data worldwide. How to integrate and leverage the data into valuable information on how species are changing in space and time requires new best practices in computational and analytical approaches. Here we integrate data from three community science repositories to explore how a specialist herbivore distribution changes in relation to host plant distributions and other environmental factors. We generate a series of temporally explicit species distribution models to generate range predictions for a specialist insect herbivore (Papilio cresphontes) and three predominant host-plant species. We find that this insect species has experienced rapid northern range expansion, likely due to a combination of the range of its larval host plants and climate changes in winter. This case study shows rapid data collection through large scale community science endeavors can be leveraged through thoughtful data integration and transparent analytic pipelines to inform how environmental change impacts where species are and their interactions for a more cost effective method of biodiversity benchmarking.

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“…4). Our results highlight the importance of including biotic interactions (and interactions between herbivorous insects and host plants in particular) in examinations of range shifts, an idea often highlighted, (Urban et al , 2016) but infrequently implemented (Lemoine, 2015;Dilts et al , 2019;Svancara et al , 2019) .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Climate change and local host availability drive the northern range boundary in the rapid northward expansion of the eastern giant swallowtail butterfly

Wilson

Casajus

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Word count: 4369Data and Code Availability: Data and R scripts for all analyses are archived on Zenodo ( ABSTRACT AimsSpecies distributions result from both biotic and abiotic interactions across large spatial scales.The interplay of these interactions as climate changes quickly has been understudied, particularly in herbivorous insects. Here, we investigate the relative impacts these influences on the putative northern range expansion of the giant swallowtail butterfly in North America. LocationNorth America. Time period 1959-2018. Major taxa studiedEastern Giant swallowtail, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae); common hop tree, Ptelea trifoliata ; common prickly ash, Zanthoxylum americanum ; southern prickly ash, Zanthoxylum clava-herculis (Saphidales: Rutaceae). MethodsWe used data from museum collections and citizen science repositories to generate species distribution models. Distribution models were built for each species over two time periods (T1 = 1959-1999; T2 = 2000-2018). Results Models for P. cresphontes and associated host plants had high predictive accuracy onspatially-explicit test data (AUC 0.810-0.996). Occurrence data align with model outputs, providing strong evidence for a northward range expansion in the last 19 years (T2) by P.cresphontes . Host plants have shifted in more complex ways, and result in a change in suitable habitat for P. cresphontes in its historic range. P. cresphontes has a northern range which now closely aligns with its most northern host plant -continued expansion northward is unlikely, and historic northern range limits were likely determined by abiotic, not biotic, factors. Main conclusionsBiotic and abiotic factors have driven the rapid northern range expansion in the giant swallowtail butterfly across North America in the last 20 years. A number of bioclimatic variables are correlated with this expansion, notably an increase in mean annual temperature and minimum winter temperature. We predict a slowing of northward range expansion in the next 20-50 years as butterflies are now limited by the range of host plants, rather than abiotic factors.

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Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Milkweeds and the Monarch Butterfly in Idaho

Cited by 17 publications

References 89 publications

Distribution, phenology, and land cover preference risk assessments of four South-Central US milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) important for monarch butterflies

Distribution, phenology, and land cover preference risk assessments of four South-Central US milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) important for monarch butterflies

Climate Change and Local Host Availability Drive the Northern Range Boundary in the Rapid Expansion of a Specialist Insect Herbivore, Papilio cresphontes

Climate change and local host availability drive the northern range boundary in the rapid northward expansion of the eastern giant swallowtail butterfly

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