Modeling Cumulative Effects of Climate and Development on Moose, Wolf, and Caribou Populations

Abstract

Wildlife models focused solely on a single strong influence (e.g., habitat components, wildlife harvest) are limited in their ability to detect key mechanisms influencing population change. Instead, we propose integrated modeling in the context of cumulative effects assessment using multispecies population dynamics models linked to landscape‐climate simulation at large spatial and temporal scales. We developed an integrated landscape and population simulation model using ALCES Online as the model‐building platform, and the model accounted for key ecological components and relationships among moose (Alces alces), grey wolves (Canis lupus nubilus), and woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northern Ontario, Canada. We simulated multiple scenarios over 5 decades (beginning 2020) to explore sensitivity to climate change and land use and assessed effects at multiple scales. The magnitude of effect and the relative importance of key factors (climate change, roads, and habitat) differed depending on the scale of assessment. Across the full extent of the study area (654,311km2 [ecozonal scale]), the caribou population declined by 26% largely because of climate change and associated predator‐prey response, which led to caribou range recession in the southern part of the study area. At the caribou range scale (108,378 km2), which focused on 2 herds in the northern part of the study area, climate change led to a 10% decline in the population and development led to an additional 7% decline. At the project scale (8,331 km2), which was focused more narrowly on the landscape surrounding 4 proposed mines, the caribou population declined by 29% largely in response to simulated development. Given that observed caribou population dynamics were sensitive to the cumulative effects of climate change, land use, interspecific interactions, and scale, insights from the analysis might not emerge under a less complex model. Our integrated modeling framework provides valuable support for broader regional assessments, including estimation of risk to caribou and Indigenous food security, and for developing and evaluating potential caribou recovery strategies. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Existing caribou habitat and demographic models need improvement for Ring of Fire impact assessment: A roadmap for improving the usefulness, transparency, and availability of models for conservation

“…We used tables of published boreal caribou range- and season-specific RSF coefficients for Ontario (Hornseth and Rempel, 2016; Rempel et al, 2021), hereafter referred to as the original RSFs. The authors referred to these models as resource selection probability functions (RSPFs), but their approach differs from what is commonly understood as an RSPF (Johnson et al, 2006) so we use the term RSF.…”

“…Regardless of their potential limitations, RSFs and demographic models often represent the best available information to be used to support conservation decision making.. In Ontario, Canada, existing RSF (Hornseth and Rempel, 2016) and demographic models (Johnson et al, 2020) are used to support decisions provincially (Rempel et al, 2021) and federally (ECCC, 2019). These models represent the best available information for the RoF, but their utility for projecting impacts has not been formally evaluated, nor are they easy to scrutinize or apply.…”

Efficacy and ethics of intensive predator management to save endangered caribou

“…By the time managers turn to predator reduction as a means to reverse the decline of caribou populations, multiple warning signals have already flashed. Even with mounting empirical evidence that confirms a relationship between habitat loss and population decline, industrial disturbance has accelerated over the past several decades since caribou declines were first documented (Environment Canada, 2012;Johnson et al, 2015Johnson et al, , 2020Nagy-Reis et al, 2021;Rempel et al, 2021;Rudolph et al, 2017). Governments have relied on piecemeal mitigation of impacts, rather than limitation of the industrial footprint, long after caribou were legally recognized as Threatened or Endangered.…”

Risk assessment framework for cumulative effects (RAFCE)

“…Blakely et al (2020) reviewed RAs in Canada to understand best practices for RA and found that different approaches to regional cumulative effects assessment have emerged. Assessments that focus on thresholds to support future planning have often used the scenario modelling frameworks (e.g., ALCES Online Scenario Analysis), primarily to simulate the impacts of developments on VECs (e.g., Schneider et al, 2003;Francis and Hamm, 2011;Rempel et al, 2021). For instance, the cumulative effects assessment of the North Saskatchewan River Watershed used ALCES Online Scenario Analysis to simulate the effects of major land uses in the watershed and on watershed values over a 100-year period under four different development scenarios (Sullivan, 2009).…”