Modeling COVID-19 Mortality Across 44 Countries: Face Covering May Reduce Deaths

Motallebi, Sahar; Cheung, Rex C. Y.; Mohit, Babak; Shahabi, Shahram; Tabriz, Amir Alishahi; Sadeghi, Banafsheh; Moattari, Syamak

doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2021.09.019

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 79 publications

(97 reference statements)

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“…Likewise, in the study conducted by Fortaleza et al (8) in Sao Paolo, Brazil, although the incremental beneficial impact of universal masking was not immediate on overall incidence, the authors noted a significant long-term impact on daily incidence rates for both the inner state and the metropolitan region. The results were consistent for case mortality, as Motallebi et al (9), noted that the average COVID-19 mortality in countries that implemented mask policies was 48.40 per million, while it was 288.54 per million in countries without mask policies. Furthermore, during a total of 60 days into the pandemic, countries with face mask regulations had an average daily increase of 0.0360 deaths per million, whereas countries without face mask regulations were reported to have a higher average increase of 0.0533 daily deaths per million population.…”

Section: The Effectiveness Of Face Mask Usesupporting

confidence: 72%

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the period January 2021 until May 2022: A systematic literature review

Vardavas,

Nikitara,

Aslanoglou

et al. 2023

Preprint

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ObjectivesIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs). With this systematic review, we investigated the effectiveness of NPIs in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission by assessing empirical evidence and data obtained through modelling studies.DesignWe searched Medline(OVID) and EMBASE until 26 May 2022. The PICO framework was used to determine the eligibility of the studies. Populations were restricted to studies on humans, and there was no geographical limitation. The included articles assessed NPIs at the regional or national level as mitigation measures against SARS-CoV-2 transmission for human population without geographical limitation. Unmitigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission or the period before the implementation of the assessed NPI were used as the comparator.Main outcome measuresOutcome indicators were extracted and included COVID-19 cases, incidence and peaks, reproduction rate, growth rate, case mortality, and hospital and Intensive Care Unit admissions. Due to the heterogeneity between studies, statistical analysis was not possible and hence the results were presented narratively.Results49 studies were included; 21 based on empirical evidence and 28 modelling studies. Among the latter, the effectiveness of facemasks was evaluated in 11 studies, five assessed stay-at-home orders and five school closures. Regarding face mask use, the majority of studies presented a beneficial effect when appropriate social distancing measures could not be maintained. Restrictions on mass gatherings, stay-at-home-orders and lockdown measures were found to be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission when timely and properly implemented. The results related to school closures were inconclusive.ConclusionsThis systematic review assesses the effectiveness of NPIs in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission from January 2021 until May 2022. It suggests the importance of timely implementation and the optimised impact when implementing multiple NPIs in parallel. Continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of NPIs is required to determine the most suitable nature, time, and duration of the implemented NPIs.What is already known on this topicPrior to this study, it was recognised that in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as hygiene measures, face mask usage, travel restrictions, social distancing, and contact tracing were implemented worldwide. The scientific community has been assessing the effectiveness of these NPIs in mitigating the pandemic’s impact on public health and the economy.What this study addsThis systematic review contributes by presenting updated and comprehensive evidence regarding the effectiveness of NPIs as a means of mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission, using both real-world evidence and data obtained through modelling studies. The study affirms that the timely application of NPIs, including the use of face masks, stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings, and school closures, substantially reduced COVID-19 cases and fatalities. It underscores the significance of employing multiple NPIs in tandem for heightened effectiveness within future respiratory pandemics. The review emphasises the necessity for ongoing assessment of NPI efficacy, taking into account factors such as public compliance, vaccination rates, and the prevalence of virus variants.How this study might affect research, practice, or policyThe findings of this study carry various implications. Firstly, they inform policymakers about the critical importance of promptly implementing NPIs and employing them in combination to manage respiratory pandemics. Secondly, the results underscore the enduring relevance of NPIs even as pandemic vaccination campaigns progress. Thirdly, the study highlights the need for standardized methodologies for evaluating the effectiveness of NPIs. Lastly, this review can guide future public health strategies by offering valuable insights into the impact of different interventions on pandemic control.

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Section: The Effectiveness Of Face Mask Usesupporting

confidence: 72%

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the period January 2021 until May 2022: A systematic literature review

Vardavas,

Nikitara,

Aslanoglou

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…However, many political leaders undermined the use of these tools. Motallebi et al (2022) reported a significant association between country-wide mask mandates and lower COVID death rates in a longitudinal study that included 44 countries and over one billion people. However, in many U.S. states, governments refused to enforce mask mandates, which led to higher rates of infection and death.…”

Section: > > Impact On Public Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Politics Spread COVID: Developing a Public Health Response

Cheatham¹,

Hancher-Rauch

Brookins-Fisher

et al. 2022

Health Promotion Practice

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The circumstances leading to one million American deaths from COVID-19 are familiar to health educators: The pandemic was politicized from the outset; public health professionals were pushed aside and sometimes attacked; in many areas, compliance with public health recommendations was low, and vaccine uptake was much less than required to meet the threat; the public health community tied itself in knots trying to figure out how to cut through the plethora of misinformation; people in marginalized populations died in vastly disproportionate numbers in spite of years of preparation to prevent just that outcome. Cumulative mortality is equivalent to some of the “worst case” scenarios put forth by U.S. public health experts at the beginning of the pandemic even though we’ve worked so hard to prepare for this type of global pandemic, so what went wrong? Profound changes in American politics have led to a relationship between public health and swaths of society that is quite unlike what previously was assumed in the dominant models of public health; it was believed that public health experts would be treated as and listened to as the experts they are in the field. As the politicization of the pandemic and subsequent deaths show, these assumptions are no longer valid and we cannot assure the health of the public as we are required to do. The assumptions that we have operated under for so long in public health now must be deconstructed and revisited in order to move forward and prevent unnecessary future deaths. To do this, we must better understand the influence of American politics and we must more effectively engage in politics at all levels.

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“…Among these, wearing a mask was counted as one of the most effective preventive measures. 12 Of note, from the beginning of the pandemic, wearing a mask was advised strongly, whereas in several countries, particularly in Europe, 13 it had been discouraged by health authorities unless the individual was sick, given the lack of evidence on its efficacy 14 and the expectation of herd immunity (the indirect protection from an infectious disease that arises when a sufficient percentage of a given population has become immune through previous infections or vaccination). In South Korea, the government imposed a fine on those who objected to wearing masks.…”

Section: Active Preventive Measures In South Korea From February 2020...mentioning

confidence: 99%

How to cope with emerging viral diseases: lessons from South Korea's strategy for COVID-19, and collateral damage to cardiometabolic health

Lim¹,

Sohn²

2023

The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific

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Modeling COVID-19 Mortality Across 44 Countries: Face Covering May Reduce Deaths

Cited by 9 publications

References 79 publications

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the period January 2021 until May 2022: A systematic literature review

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the period January 2021 until May 2022: A systematic literature review

Politics Spread COVID: Developing a Public Health Response

How to cope with emerging viral diseases: lessons from South Korea's strategy for COVID-19, and collateral damage to cardiometabolic health

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