Modeling covariance structures and optimizing Jatropha curcas breeding

Evangelista, Jeniffer Santana Pinto Coelho; Peixoto, Marco Antônio; Coelho, Igor Ferreira; Ferreira, Filipe Manoel; Marçal, Tiago de Souza; Alves, Rodrigo Silva; Chaves, Saulo Fabrício da Silva; Rodrigues, Erina Vitório; Laviola, Bruno Galvêas; Resende, Marcos Deon Vilela de; Dias, Kaio Olímpio das Graças; Bhering, Leonardo Lopes

doi:10.1007/s11295-023-01596-9

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“…Initially employed in forage species to assess the maintenance of productivity levels through multiple cuts [ 24 ], the concept of persistence is also relevant in the context of perennial fruit crops [ 31 ], given the perennial behavior of both. We can make a parallel between persistence and the probability of superior stability, as both represent ecological stability, i.e., invariance of performance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recommendation of Tahiti acid lime cultivars through Bayesian probability models

Malikouski,

Ferreira,

Chaves

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Probabilistic models enhance breeding, especially for the Tahiti acid lime, a fruit essential to fresh markets and industry. These models identify superior and persistent individuals using probability theory, providing a measure of uncertainty that can aid the recommendation. The objective of our study was to evaluate the use of a Bayesian probabilistic model for the recommendation of superior and persistent genotypes of Tahiti acid lime evaluated in 12 harvests. Leveraging the Monte Carlo Hamiltonian sampling algorithm, we calculated the probability of superior performance (superior genotypic value), and the probability of superior stability (reduced variance of the genotype-by-harvests interaction) of each genotype. The probability of superior stability was compared to a measure of persistence estimated from genotypic values predicted using a frequentist model. Our results demonstrated the applicability and advantages of the Bayesian probabilistic model, yielding similar parameters to those of the frequentist model, while providing further information about the probabilities associated with genotype performance and stability. Genotypes G15, G4, G18, and G11 emerged as the most superior in performance, whereas G24, G7, G13, and G3 were identified as the most stable. This study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian probabilistic models in the fruit trees cultivars recommendation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%