Modeling Colony-Site Dynamics: A Case Study of Gull-Billed Terns (Sterna nilotica) in Coastal Virginia

Erwin, R.M.; Nichols, James D.; Eyler, T. Brian; Stotts, Daniel B.; Truitt, Barry R.

doi:10.2307/4089515

Cited by 67 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The change in occupancy rates over years could then be modeled as functions of site colonization and extinction rates, analogous with the birth and death rates in an open-population mark-recapture study. Such Markov models of patch occupancy dynamics will permit timespecific estimation and modeling of patch extinction and colonization rates that do not require the assumptions of p ϭ 1 or process stationarity invoked in previous modeling efforts (e.g., Erwin et al [1998] required p ϭ 1; Hanski [1992Hanski [ , 1994 and Clark and Rosenzweig [1994] required both assumptions).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Site Occupancy Rates When Detection Probabilities Are Less Than One

MacKenzie¹,

Nichols²,

Lachman³

et al. 2002

Ecology

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993

1,745

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Abstract. Nondetection of a species at a site does not imply that the species is absent unless the probability of detection is 1. We propose a model and likelihood-based method for estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are Ͻ1. The model provides a flexible framework enabling covariate information to be included and allowing for missing observations. Via computer simulation, we found that the model provides good estimates of the occupancy rates, generally unbiased for moderate detection probabilities (Ͼ0.3). We estimated site occupancy rates for two anuran species at 32 wetland sites in Maryland, USA, from data collected during 2000 as part of an amphibian monitoring program, Frogwatch USA. Site occupancy rates were estimated as 0.49 for American toads (Bufo americanus), a 44% increase over the proportion of sites at which they were actually observed, and as 0.85 for spring peepers (Pseudacris crucifer), slightly above the observed proportion of 0.83.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Site Occupancy Rates When Detection Probabilities Are Less Than One

MacKenzie¹,

Nichols²,

Lachman³

et al. 2002

Ecology

Self Cite

993

1,745

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show abstract

“…Although terns and other seabirds are often assumed to be highly philopatric, the degree of site fidelity varies substantially both between species (McNicholl, 1975;Møller, 1982;Burger, 1984;Erwin et al, 1998;Renken and Smith, 1995;Ward et al, 2011;Ledwón et al, 2013;Zarza et al, 2013) and between colony sites within species (Austin, 1949;Haymes and Blokpoel, 1978;Tims et al, 2004;Spendelow et al, 1995;Feare and Lesperance, 2002;Lebreton et al, 2003;Sánchez et al, 2004;Shealer et al, 2005;Devlin et al, 2008;Ratcliffe et al, 2008;Draheim et al, 2010). Most measures of philopatry are probably biased toward high values because it is difficult to detect individuals who disperse (Coulson and Coulson, 2008).…”

Section: Philopatry and Dispersalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regardless of typical colony size, which varies enormously among species (Gochfeld and Burger, 1996;Cabot and Nisbet, 2013), it is best to have multiple protected sites so that loss of one or a few sites does not lead to loss of the population (Erwin et al, 1995;Matthiopoulos et al, 2005). If site fidelity is low (see Philopatry and Dispersal, below) it may also be important to protect currently unoccupied but suitable sites (Erwin et al, 1998). If site fidelity is high, then protecting existing sites takes on added urgency because the terns may be unlikely to colonize new locations (Burger and Lesser, 1978;Heinänen et al, 2008).…”

Section: Habitat Selection and Conspecific Attractionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of behavior in tern conservation

Palestis

2014

Current Zoology

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Behavioral research has long had an important role in the conservation of terns (Aves: Sternidae). Habitat management and restoration of breeding colony sites depends on knowledge of the cues used to select colony and nest sites. For example, conspecific attraction with playback and decoys is commonly used to bring terns to suitable colony sites and habitat modification is often used to increase the availability of suitable nest sites. Tern colonies are interconnected by dispersal, and a metapopulation approach is needed for effective management. Population dynamics are therefore affected by behaviors that influence the frequency of movement among colony sites: site fidelity, natal and breeding dispersal, and group adherence. The monogamous breeding system of terns should keep effective population size similar to census population size, but variation in sex ratios (likely resulting from sex differences in behavior) and in parental quality can result in a smaller than expected effective population size. In addition to the behavior of terns, knowledge of the behavior of predators on terns contributes to management plans, because predator behavior can sometimes be manipulated and predation is often performed by only a few specialized individuals. Other examples of links between tern behavior and conservation are also briefly reviewed, such as behavioral toxicology research and studies of behavioral responses to human disturbance and manmade structures. More work is needed on the behavior of migratory terns at staging sites, stopover sites and wintering grounds, and on the behavior of less well-studied species and species in less well-studied geographic regions [Current Zoology 60 (4): 500-514, 2014].

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“…Esler (2000) showed that when birds exhibit spatial structure and site fidelity, important insights into avian population dynamics can be determined using a spatially explicit approach. Avian colony dynamics have been recently explored and have led to insights into where bird colonies are formed and how they persist in time and space (Erwin et al 1998, Oro and Ruxton 2001, Barbraud et al 2003, Chaulk et al 2006. How local colony size and recent colony trends influence the ability of colonies to persist and the importance of rescue effects from nearby occupied colonies have all been considered (Barbraud et al 2003, Martínez-Abraín et al 2003, Chaulk et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Colony Dynamics and Persistence of Ivory Gull Breeding in Canada

Robertson¹,

Gilchrist²

2007

ACE

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ABSTRACT. Despite the importance of assessing the viability of small and endangered populations, often few demographic data are available. However, when counts are available from discrete sites, a colony-or site-based approach can be useful. We used recent counts of Ivory Gull, Pagophila eburnea, a rare species that breeds at remote sites in the high Arctic, to model colony dynamics and population persistence. Colonization rates were low at 0.189 ± 0.054 (mean ± SE), new colonies were small (mean: 7.7 pairs), and there was no evidence of local rescue effects from nearby colonies. Based on these rates, a population projection model was constructed using a starting population of 225 pairs at the 24 sites. The projected population reached an equilibrium of approximately 30 pairs in only 8 yr. The large and isolated colony on Seymour Island has declined at 2.7%/yr (95% confidence limits: -13.9, 8.5) since 1974, and had low but wide-ranging probabilities of going extinct within 20 yr. The suggestion that Ellesmere Island may be the only site where breeding Ivory Gull will persist in the future is supported by the recent discovery of new colonies there in 2006.RÉSUMÉ. En dépit de l'importance d'évaluer la viabilité de petites populations en voie de disparition, il existe souvent peu de données démographiques. Toutefois, lorsqu'on dispose de dénombrements pour des sites isolés, une méthode d'analyse par colonie ou par site peut s'avérer utile. Nous avons utilisé des dénombrements récents de Mouettes blanches, Pagophila eburnea, une espèce rare qui se reproduit dans des sites reculés dans le Haut-Arctique, pour modéliser la dynamique des colonies et la pérennité des populations. Les déclins importants observés dans le nombre de couples nichant au Canada sont à l'origine de l'attribution nouvelle du statut « en voie de disparition » à l'espèce par le Comité sur la situation des espèces en péril au

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Modeling Colony-Site Dynamics: A Case Study of Gull-Billed Terns (Sterna nilotica) in Coastal Virginia

Cited by 67 publications

References 20 publications

Estimating Site Occupancy Rates When Detection Probabilities Are Less Than One

Estimating Site Occupancy Rates When Detection Probabilities Are Less Than One

The role of behavior in tern conservation

Colony Dynamics and Persistence of Ivory Gull Breeding in Canada

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