Modeling CO2 Emission Forecasting in Energy Consumption of the Industrial Building Sector under Sustainability Policy in Thailand: Enhancing the LISREL-LGM Model

Abstract

This research aims to study and develop a model to demonstrate the causal relationships of factors used to forecast CO2 emissions from energy consumption in the industrial building sector and to make predictions for the next 10 years (2024–2033). This aligns with Thailand’s goals for sustainability development, as outlined in the green economy objectives. The research employs a quantitative research approach, utilizing Linear Structural Relationships based on a Latent Growth Model (LISREL-LGM model) which is a valuable tool for efficient country management towards predefined green economy objectives by 2033. The research findings reveal continuous significant growth in the past economic sector (1990–2023), leading to subsequent growth in the social sector. Simultaneously, this growth has had a continuous detrimental impact on the environment, primarily attributed to the economic growth in the industrial building sector. Consequently, the research indicates that maintaining current policies would result in CO2 emissions from energy consumption in the industrial building sector exceeding the carrying capacity. Specifically, the growth rate (2033/2024) would increase by 28.59%, resulting in a surpassing emission of 70.73 Mt CO2 Eq. (2024–2033), exceeding the designated carrying capacity of 60.5 Mt CO2 Eq. (2024–2033). Therefore, the research proposes strategies for country management to achieve sustainability, suggesting the implementation of new scenario policies in the industrial building sector. This course of action would lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions (2024–2033) from energy consumption in the industrial building sector to 58.27 Mt CO2 Eq., demonstrating a decreasing growth rate below the carrying capacity. This underscores the efficacy and appropriateness of the LISREL-LGM model employed in this research for guiding decision making towards green economy objectives in the future.