Modeling climate influences on male survival in the highly polygynous southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina)

Abstract

The Southern Ocean, its ecosystem, and inhabitants are vulnerable to climate‐mediated shifts in habitat conditions. These changes can affect marine predators in the long term through changes in the distribution, density, and quality of prey. To understand how these changes affect vital rates requires longitudinal studies integrating demography and environmental states. We analyzed 22 years of capture–mark–recapture data to quantify the influence of broad‐scale climate on the survival of male southern elephant seals from Macquarie Island, Tasmania, Australia. Weaning mass was incorporated as a quadratic predictor of survival to account for the known influence of maternal investment. First‐year survival was greatest for weaners weighing 160 kg. Subsequent developmental stages were grouped into juvenile, subordinate, and breeding adult states to reflect the known life history of individuals. We found increased juvenile and subordinate survival with positive values of the previous years' Southern Annular Mode. This is likely due to the northward shift of westerly winds increasing productivity and prey availability in the Sub‐Antarctic region. In contrast to females of this population, the Southern Oscillation Index did not affect male survival. In this highly polygynous mating system, sex‐dependent differences in foraging behavior may be causing the small number of successful breeding adult males to be less susceptible to external influences after reaching the minimum age and body size required to be socially competitive for mating. These extremely large bulls will breed with multiple females and thus make a disproportionate contribution to the gene pool of the next generation. Considering the susceptibility of males to climate influences is therefore highly relevant to assessing the future adaptive capability of the species.