Modeling Climate Change Scenarios for Spring Barley in Southeast of Almaty in Kazakhstan Using the LINTUL Approach

Abstract

Barley stands as a cornerstone in agricultural landscape of Kazakhstan, weaving through diverse climate zones, and annually gracing over 1.5 million hectares. The intricate interplay between climate and food systems necessitates thorough analysis and strategic measures to food safety and nutritional security, as the evolving climate significantly influences both the quantity and quality of our food resources. This study aims to employ the LINTUL-MULTICROP Model to assess how spring barley adapts to both today’s climatic conditions and potential climate change scenarios to elevated levels of carbon dioxide and temperature under the specific conditions of southeast of Almaty. Three different global climate change models were studied (GCMs); i) GFDL-ESM2M, ii) HadGEM2-AO, and iii) MPI-ESM-MR for historical period (1986-2005) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 during the periods of i) 2040-2059 years scenarios, ii) 2060-2079 years scenarios, and iii) 2080-2099 years scenarios. Overall, the HADGEMAO and MPIESMMR models exhibited promising results in simulating yield, projecting an increase in spring barley yield for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in GFDL-ESM2M model case also demonstrated stable increase in rainfed conditions. In conclusion, it should be noted that in the conditions of Kazakhstan, the cultivation of spring barley tends to change to growth in the southeast of Almaty.