Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro

Dodero-Rojas, Esteban; Ferreira, Luiza G.; Leite, Vitor Barbanti Pereira; Onuchic, José N.; Contessoto, Vinícius G.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0222900

“…Another study estimated the R 0 for MAYV using parameters fitted to data from a 2018 chikungunya virus outbreak in Rio de Janeiro. They obtained estimates ranging from 1.18 to 3.51 based on the assumption that both viruses can infect and potentially be transmitted by the same species of mosquitoes [ 27 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although several reviews of MAYV epidemiology and transmission have been published recently [2,[22][23][24][25][26], key epidemiological parameters, such as the generation time and the basic reproduction number, have not been estimated from MAYV data. Consequently, there is a dearth of mathematical modelling studies of MAYV [18,27]. By conducting a systematic review of the literature and estimating key parameters, we aim to fill important knowledge gaps on MAYV in order to understand its transmission dynamics in the Americas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

Caicedo

¹

,

Charniga

²

,

Rueda

³

et al. 2021

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Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arbovirus that is endemic to tropical forests in Central and South America, particularly within the Amazon basin. In recent years, concern has increased regarding MAYV’s ability to invade urban areas and cause epidemics across the region. We conducted a systematic literature review to characterise the evolutionary history of MAYV, its transmission potential, and exposure patterns to the virus. We analysed data from the literature on MAYV infection to produce estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the generation time and the basic reproduction number, R0. We also estimated the force-of-infection (FOI) in epidemic and endemic settings. Seventy-six publications met our inclusion criteria. Evidence of MAYV infection in humans, animals, or vectors was reported in 14 Latin American countries. Nine countries reported evidence of acute infection in humans confirmed by viral isolation or reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). We identified at least five MAYV outbreaks. Seroprevalence from population based cross-sectional studies ranged from 21% to 72%. The estimated mean generation time of MAYV was 15.2 days (95% CrI: 11.7–19.8) with a standard deviation of 6.3 days (95% CrI: 4.2–9.5). The per-capita risk of MAYV infection (FOI) ranged between 0.01 and 0.05 per year. The mean R0 estimates ranged between 2.1 and 2.9 in the Amazon basin areas and between 1.1 and 1.3 in the regions outside of the Amazon basin. Although MAYV has been identified in urban vectors, there is not yet evidence of sustained urban transmission. MAYV’s enzootic cycle could become established in forested areas within cities similar to yellow fever virus.

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“…These findings suggest that MAYV has the potential for epidemic spread in an urban setting. [26] Concerns of urban MAYV transmission were amplified after antibodies to MAYV were discovered in 33 of 631 sera (5.2%) in the city of Manaus, Brazil in 2007-08 [25] although it is unclear if humans can serve as amplification hosts. For example, Long et al noted that the short duration of MAYV viremia and the relatively low viremic titers in humans reduces the probability of urban spread [22].…”

Section: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The occurrence of MAYV in the city of Manaus has also led to concerns about the involvement of Aedes mosquitoes in a MAYV urban transmission cycle [ 25 ]. In addition, mathematical modeling has demonstrated the potential for urban outbreaks of MAYV in Brazil [ 26 ] and Colombia [ 27 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the potential non-human animal reservoirs and arthropod vectors of the Mayaro virus

Celone

¹

,

Okech

²

,

Han

³

et al. 2021

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Improving our understanding of Mayaro virus (MAYV) ecology is critical to guide surveillance and risk assessment. We conducted a PRISMA-adherent systematic review of the published and grey literature to identify potential arthropod vectors and non-human animal reservoirs of MAYV. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, SciELO and grey-literature sources including PAHO databases and dissertation repositories. Studies were included if they assessed MAYV virological/immunological measured occurrence in field-caught, domestic, or sentinel animals or in field-caught arthropods. We conducted an animal seroprevalence meta-analysis using a random effects model. We compiled granular georeferenced maps of non-human MAYV occurrence and graded the quality of the studies using a customized framework. Overall, 57 studies were eligible out of 1523 screened, published between the years 1961 and 2020. Seventeen studies reported MAYV positivity in wild mammals, birds, or reptiles and five studies reported MAYV positivity in domestic animals. MAYV positivity was reported in 12 orders of wild-caught vertebrates, most frequently in the orders Charadriiformes and Primate. Sixteen studies detected MAYV in wild-caught mosquito genera including Haemagogus, Aedes, Culex, Psorophora, Coquillettidia, and Sabethes. Vertebrate animals or arthropods with MAYV were detected in Brazil, Panama, Peru, French Guiana, Colombia, Trinidad, Venezuela, Argentina, and Paraguay. Among non-human vertebrates, the Primate order had the highest pooled seroprevalence at 13.1% (95% CI: 4.3–25.1%). From the three most studied primate genera we found the highest seroprevalence was in Alouatta (32.2%, 95% CI: 0.0–79.2%), followed by Callithrix (17.8%, 95% CI: 8.6–28.5%), and Cebus/Sapajus (3.7%, 95% CI: 0.0–11.1%). We further found that MAYV occurs in a wide range of vectors beyond Haemagogus spp. The quality of evidence behind these findings was variable and prompts calls for standardization of reporting of arbovirus occurrence. These findings support further risk emergence prediction, guide field surveillance efforts, and prompt further in-vivo studies to better define the ecological drivers of MAYV maintenance and potential for emergence.

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“…Although several reviews of MAYV epidemiology and transmission have been published recently [2,[22][23][24][25][26], key epidemiological parameters, such as the generation time and the basic reproduction number, have not been estimated from MAYV data. Consequently, there is a dearth of mathematical modelling studies of MAYV [5,27]. By conducting a systematic review of the literature and estimating key parameters, we aim to fill important knowledge gaps on MAYV in order to understand its transmission dynamics in the Americas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

Caicedo¹,

Charniga²,

Rueda³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arbovirus that is endemic to tropical forests in Central and South America, particularly within the Amazon basin. In recent years, concern has increased regarding MAYV’s ability to invade urban areas and cause epidemics across the region. We conducted a systematic literature review to characterise the evolutionary history of MAYV, its transmission potential, and exposure patterns to the virus. We analysed data from the literature on MAYV infection to produce estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the generation time and the basic reproduction number, R0. We also estimated the force-of-infection (FOI) in epidemic and endemic settings. Seventy-six publications met our inclusion criteria. Evidence of MAYV infection in humans, animals, or vectors was reported in 14 Latin American countries. Nine countries reported evidence of acute infection in humans confirmed by viral isolation or reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). We identified at least five MAYV outbreaks. Seroprevalence from population based cross-sectional studies ranged from 21% to 72%. The estimated mean generation time of MAYV was 15.2 days (95% CrI: 11.7-19.8) with a standard deviation of 6.3 days (95% CrI: 4.2-9.5). The per-capita risk of MAYV infection (FOI) ranged between 0.01 and 0.05 per year, producing R0 estimates between 1.1 and 2.9 in endemic settings. In an outbreak in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, R0 was estimated at 2.2 (95% CrI: 0.8-4.8). Although MAYV has been identified in urban vectors, there is not yet evidence of sustained urban transmission. MAYV’s enzootic cycle could become established in forested areas within cities similar to yellow fever virus.Author summaryEach year, diseases that are transmitted by mosquitoes cause substantial deaths and disability across the world. We performed a systematic literature review of Mayaro virus (MAYV) and estimated key epidemiological parameters that can be used to improve future outbreak response. We estimated the generation time and basic reproduction number for a historical outbreak. Our results suggest that the force-of-infection of MAYV in endemic settings is low. We did not find evidence of substantial urban transmission of MAYV. Nevertheless, similarities between MAYV and yellow fever virus epidemiology suggest that MAYV could emerge in urban areas. Local transmission of MAYV has never been reported outside of Central and South America. Our results highlight the need to continue monitoring emerging arboviruses in the Americas.

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Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro

Cited by 13 publications

References 36 publications

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the potential non-human animal reservoirs and arthropod vectors of the Mayaro virus

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

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