Modeling Behavioural Evolution as Social Predictor for the Coronavirus Contagion and Immunization in Nigeria

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic from China in 2019, it has left the world leaders in great confusing due to its fast-paced propagation and spread that has left infected a world population of over Eleven Million persons with over five hundred and thirty four thousand deaths and counting with the United States of America, Brazil, Russia, India and Peru in the lead on these death toll. The pandemic whose increased mortality rate is targeted at ‘aged’ citizens, patients with low immunology as well as patients with chronic diseases and underlying health conditions. Study models covid-19 pandemic via a susceptible-infect-remove actor-based graph, with covid-19 virus as the innovation diffused within the social graph. We measure the rich connective patterns of the actor-based graph, and explore personal feats as they influence other nodes to adopt or reject an innovation. Results shows current triggers (lifting of inter-intra state migration bans) and shocks (exposure to covid-19 by migrants) will lead to late widespread majority adoption of 23.8-percent. At this, the death toll will climb from between 4.43-to-5.61-percent to over 12%.

Predictive Intelligent Decision Support Model in Forecasting of the Diabetes Pandemic Using a Reinforcement Deep Learning Approach

“…This has made manual diagnostic somewhat redundant, difficult, often inconclusive and time-wasting [refer to studies in [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Early prediction of diabetes thus, is a complex task due to the chaotic nature of its classification [16][17]. Studies continue to advance early and accurate detection of diabeteseven though, it is a challenging task [18].…”

Modeling Mobility Pattern for the Corona-Virus Epidemic Spread Propagation and Death Rate in Nigeria using the Movement-Interaction-Return Model

“…These factors have also been driven by frontier features namely: (a) migration activities from one place to another, and (b) effects of climate change [5,13]. As a direct consequence of these two factors above, we have assisted in the spread of the Ebola outbreak as well as the current corona virus (covid-19) [3,10]. Thus, it has become imperative that the inclusion of actor migration and interaction activities in the well-formulation of an epidemic propagation model has become mandatory as well as critical to achieving accurate description of any epidemic scenario […”

“…These tools have thus, become useful, critical and imperative in controlling existing states of known events as well as helpful in prediction (as insight) to unknown events so long the proper and effective parameters are employed and adequately represented within the mathematical model [1,2]. These have been used to control/manage existing contagions epidemics as well as for analyzing cum forecasting the outcome therein of such epidemics [3,4,5].…”

Migration Pattern As Threshold Parameter In The Propagation of The Covid-19 Epidemic Using An Actor-Based Model for SI-Social Graph

“…For an n-order Markov, its transition probabilities depend on current and n-1 previous states, and used to determine states generated for each state observation in a series. A variant of the Markov model is the Hidden Markov and Profile Hidden Markovboth of which seeks to address the fundamental issues of Markov by: (a) makes explicit use of positional (alignment) data contained in sequences, and (b) it allows null transitions, where necessary so that the model can match sequences that includes insertion and deletions (Ojugo and Eboka, 2021). With state transition and probability distribution of nodal observations, the Markovian Equation expressed as λ = (A,B,π) and depending on task (Ojugo and Eboka, 2014;.…”

“…Diseases are harmful deviation(s) from the normal functional or structural state of an organism or system that is generally associated with certain symptoms, and differing in nature from a physical injury. Thus, a diseased organism commonly exhibits signs or symptoms indicative of its abnormal state or condition (Ojugo and Otakore, 2021;Ojugo and Eboka, 2021). Disease or disorder (contagion) are propagated or spread from a system to another through medium such as direct contact, fomites, oral (injection), vectorborne and aerosol (WHO, 2019;Adegboye et al, 2020).…”