Modeling Baltic market benchmark index: a comparison of models

Abstract

In this paper we perform a statistical analysis of the returns of OMX Baltic Benchmark index. We construct symmetric α-stable, non-standardized Student’s t and normal-inverse Gaussian models of daily logarithmic returns of the index, using maximum likelihood method for the estimation of the parameters of the models. The adequacy of the modeling is evaluated with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for composite hypothesis. The results of the study indicate that the normal-inverse Gaussian model outperforms alternative heavy-tailed models for long periods of time, while the non-standardized Student’s t model provides the best overall fit for the data for shorter intervals. According to the likelihood-ratio test, the four-parameter models of the log-returns of OMX Baltic Benchmark index could be reduced to the three-parameter (symmetric) models without much loss.