Modeling as a Tool for Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Prioritization

Abstract

Transboundary aquifers are critical global water supplies facing unprecedented threats of depletion; existing efforts to assess these resources do not adequately account for the complexities of transboundary human and physical system interactions to the determinant of the impact of assessment outcomes. This study developed a system dynamics model with natural, human, and technical system components for a section of the transboundary Mesilla Basin/Conejos-Médanos aquifer to evaluate the following dynamic hypothesis: how and when information from a transboundary aquifer assessment is reported and perceived, in scenarios where two countries follow identical and different timeframes, dynamically impacts the behaviors of the shared aquifer. Simulation experiments were conducted to quantitatively assess the dynamics of transboundary aquifer assessment information reporting and perception delays. These critical feedbacks have not previously been incorporated practically in simulation and analysis. Simulation results showed that the timing and content of reporting can change the dynamic behavior of natural, human, and technical components of transboundary aquifer systems. This study demonstrates the potential for modeling to assist with prioritization efforts during the data collection and exchange phases to ensure that transboundary aquifer assessments achieve their intended outcomes.

Advances in Transboundary Aquifer Assessment

“…Finally, in a study that addresses the processes used to move between information creation and management decisions, Atkins et al, "Modeling as a Tool for Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Prioritization" [24], use a system dynamics model to quantitatively assess the dynamics of transboundary aquifer assessment information reporting and perception delays in the Mesilla/Conejos-Médanos Basin. The results show that the timing and content of reporting can change the dynamic behavior of natural, human, and technical components of transboundary aquifer systems.…”

Why do we need to care about transboundary aquifers and how do we solve their issues?

“…A great example of a cooperative framework to improve TBA knowledge is the Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP, Tapia-Villaseñor and Megdal 2021), which is a joint effort by the United States and Mexico to evaluate shared aquifers. Modeling can assist with prioritization efforts during the data collection and exchange phases to ensure that TBA assessments achieve their intended outcome (Atkins et al 2021). In data-scarce environments, remote sensing data and machine learning algorithms have been utilized.…”

Understanding Hydrologic, Human, and Climate System Feedback Loops: Results of a Participatory Modeling Workshop

“…Water decision-makers implement policies in the present to meet current and future needs. Appropriately assessing these needs, and the ability to meet them, remains critical Water 2024, 16, 396 2 of 18 to the success of a water policy, since changes to the built and natural environment cannot be adjusted instantaneously [12,13]. Existing evaluative approaches, however, lack useinspired and participatory structures [14,15].…”

“…Some participants were well-versed in hydrology, for example, while others had experience primarily related to water policy. We hypothesized that capturing the audience's conceptualizations of the system, or mental models, would provide insight into their perceptions and misperceptions of hydrologic, human, and climate system feedback; perceptions represent a not fully understood component of water decision making [12,22].…”