Modeling and Simulation to Improve the Efficiency of Transportation Systems: A Tool for Decision Support

Abstract

This paper addresses problem solving and complex decision making in the management of transportation operations under environmental dynamics through the use of models and scenarios. A system dynamics simulation was used to model and analyze the efficiency of transportation systems as a tool for decision support to improve efficiency. Transportation systems are complex because they involve a number of different stakeholders, resulting in feedback with different time lags between the responses of all entities. Data and information were collected from the Transportation Department of Surabaya city. Several scenarios to improve the efficiency of transportation systems were developed by modifying the structure and parameters of the model. Several factors influence the efficiency of transportation system: traffic network, conventional roadway, accessibility based transport planning, multi modal transport, planning efficiency, and resources efficient modes (economic category). By implementing a number of strategies (such as the improvement of planning efficiency; multimodal transport development; route-based performance improvement), transportation system efficiency in Surabaya was predicted to be improved from 56% in 2019 to 66% in 2040. The novel contributions of this research are: formulating relationships among several variables, modeling dynamic behavior of transportation system efficiency, and building scenario models to improve transportation operation efficiency. This research contributes to the literature by investigating these relationships through the use of models and experimental scenarios.