Modeling and mapping wildfire ignition risk in Portugal

Abstract

Portugal has the highest density of wildfire ignitions among southern European countries. The ability to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and firefighting resources allocation. In this study, we analyzed 127 490 ignitions that occurred in Portugal during a 5-year period. We used logistic regression models to predict the likelihood of ignition occurrence, using a set of potentially explanatory variables, and produced an ignition risk map for the Portuguese mainland. Results show that population density, human accessibility, land cover and elevation are important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions at the national level with good accuracy and using a small number of easily obtainable variables, which can be useful in decision-making for wildfire management.

Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: Spatial distribution characterization

“…These results are compatible with the fact humans caused almost all fires in Portugal, either by negligence or intentionally. In addition, similar BA statistics have been found by Catry et al (2007Catry et al ( , 2010 for the 2000-2005 period. Most affected CLC classes in terms of NBA were Heterogeneous agricultural areas, Scrubs and Forests.…”

Modeling human-caused forest fire ignition for assessing forest fire danger in Austria

“…Contrary to the findings of other studies (Catry et al 2009, Martinez et al 2009), a high number of forest fires is predicted for areas with a low density of variables significant for fire ignition. Although a high average density of forest fire ignitions per forest area occurs in the highest fire danger class, the probability of fire occurrence was found to be higher in districts further away from areas densely populated or with a high density of infrastructure.…”

“…International studies indicate that roughly 90% of forest fires are human-caused, whereas only a small percentage of forest fires have natural causes, i.e., lightning (Cardille et al 2001, Grissino-Mayer et al 2004, Mollicone et al 2006, Vacik et al 2011. In Europe, human activities account for the majority of fire ignition (Leone et al 2002, Catry et al 2009, Martinez et al 2009). …”

“…The increasing significance of transportation for the supply of living goods as well as for the provision of access to services potentially affects fire ignition as well. Several international studies have shown the significance of the distance of forest fires to roads, settlements and infrastructure, or specific land uses or even its abandonment as predisposition for fire ignition (Vega-Garcia et al 1995, Goldammer 2003, Kalabokidis et al 2002, Catry et al 2009, Martinez et al 2009). …”

“…In Europe, human activities account for the majority of fire ignition (Leone et al 2002, Catry et al 2009, Martinez et al 2009). Various goods and services provided by forests such as water supply, carbon sinks, recreation and protection services are most likely to be impacted by wildfires (Wotton et al 2003, Grissino-Mayer et al 2004, Brown et al 2004, Fried et al 2004, Catry et al 2009, Dumas et al 2008, Weibel et al 2009). Especially in the densely populated European mountain forests the danger of fire ignition is of high significance for the maintenance of its ecosystem goods and services as these ecosystems are very sensitive to environmental changes (Steininger & WeckHannemann 2002, Lindner et al 2010.…”