Modeling and investigating the behavior of complex socio-economic systems

Zgurovsky, Michael Z.; Boldak, A. A.; Yefremov, Kostiantyn; Pyshnograiev, Ivan

doi:10.1109/ukrcon.2017.8100400

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…Also, it should be noted that since the selection of the parameters of this model was carried out on the indicators of the pre-war period, the forecast obtained on its basis assumes that the specifics of the national economy have not changed, and the previous dynamics of the analyzed indicators will be preserved. In this situation, a scenario approach is becoming relevant [23], using which it is possible to consider the different duration of the high level of security risks and their impact on economic activity and the pace of economic recovery. The introduction of such an approach will contribute to obtaining more relevant forecasts of indicators of macroeconomic security and the immediate level of macroeconomic security.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario modeling of the critical macroeconomic and sustainable development indicators of Ukraine

Mazhara,

Pyshnograiev,

Zavalna

2023

E3S Web Conf.

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The assessment of the state of macroeconomic security as a crucial component of economic security in the context of sustainable development and the forecasting of key indicators are becoming more critical in light of the complicated circumstances that the functioning of the Ukrainian economy is currently experiencing as a result of the full-scale Russian invasion. Therefore, this study aims to build a relevant system dynamic model for assessing and forecasting the level of macroeconomic security in the medium term. A system of dynamic models of three key indicators (GDP growth rate, consumer price index, and unemployment rate) was built based on Romer’s model of economic growth with the author’s modifications, a kinetic model of the price level, and an author’s model of the dynamics of population groups. The model’s average error equals 3.25%, the maximum one is 10.927% for the inactive population in 2018. A potential forecast was made, primary and alternative scenario forecasts were developed, and the mathematical expectation of key indicators according to the scenarios was calculated. Meanwhile, none of the developed forecasts characterized the state of the level of macroeconomic security precisely as optimal, which led to the conclusion that there is an urgent need to implement a system of measures to increase macroeconomic security.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario modeling of the critical macroeconomic and sustainable development indicators of Ukraine

Mazhara,

Pyshnograiev,

Zavalna

2023

E3S Web Conf.

Self Cite

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“…This study is a continuation of the thematic research of the team of authors on the study of sustainable development of communities and territories of Ukraine and security processes in the regions of the state [4,5] and research on the development of the applications of geomatics methods [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research of food security problems of the war-torn regions of Ukraine using geomatics methods

Zgurovsky

Yefremov

Gapon

et al. 2023

SRIT

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Every year, the world faces new difficult challenges in maintaining global security. Compliance with food security principles is an important component of the global context of world development. Recent military conflicts have had a strong impact on the development of regions that provide food for millions of people around the world. Ukraine plays a key role in providing agricultural products to the population of countries from different continents. The article is devoted to the study of the state of agricultural crops in a regional section during the period of active hostilities by means of geomatics, which allow one to assess the degree of transformation of sustainable farming quickly, determine the trend of the development of the industry, and calculate the likely scale of changes in the obtained products in the coming years. As a result, with the help of deep learning models integrated into geoinformation systems, the boundaries of agricultural fields in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions were determined, the state of moisture and bioproductivity of agricultural crops was determined for three years, an analysis of changes has been made in the state of agricultural fields under the influence of new factors of conducting active hostilities during the first half of 2022, the next harvest productivity forecast was made in two southern regions of Ukraine. The study was carried out by the team of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. It was part of research on the analysis of the behavior of complex socio-economic systems and processes of sustainable development in the context of the quality and safety of people’s lives.

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“…The study was carried out by the team of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute and was part of research on the analysis of the behavior of complex socio-economic systems [8] and sustainable development processes in the context of the quality and safety of people's lives [9; 10; 11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the ukraine’s regions based on the brightness of night lights

Zgurovsky

Yefremov

Gapon

et al. 2023

SRIT

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When assessing the level of development of territories, the problem of finding objective qualitative data that will characterize it arises. One of the possible sources of such data is the remote sensing of the Earth (RSE). The article is devoted to the analysis of the possibility of using the product of RSE – the map of night lights, for modeling the economical dimension of the sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine. Using the regression and correlation analysis and neural networks, appropriate models for assessing the level of economic development of the Kherson region, Donetsk region, and the AR of Crimea were obtained. The study was carried out by the team of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. It was part of research on the analysis of the behavior of complex socio-economic systems and processes of sustainable development in the context of the quality and safety of people’s lives.

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Modeling and investigating the behavior of complex socio-economic systems

Cited by 6 publications

References 1 publication

Scenario modeling of the critical macroeconomic and sustainable development indicators of Ukraine

Scenario modeling of the critical macroeconomic and sustainable development indicators of Ukraine

Research of food security problems of the war-torn regions of Ukraine using geomatics methods

Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the ukraine’s regions based on the brightness of night lights

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