Modeling and Improvement Strategies for Safety Resilience in Maritime Hazardous Chemical Transportation System Based on Dissipative Structure Theory and System Dynamics

Abstract

Maritime hazardous chemical transportation accidents have the characteristics of strong suddenness, wide influence, and great harm. To analyze the ability of a maritime hazardous chemical transportation system (MHCTS) to cope with sudden disturbance events, “resilience” is introduced into MHCTS safety research. The key to studying resilience is modeling its evolutionary process. Based on the dissipative structure theory, this study analyzes the entropy flow mechanism of MHCTS safety resilience evolution. Through a statistical analysis of 197 investigation reports on maritime hazardous chemical transportation accidents, the factors influencing the safety resilience of the MHCTS were determined. The entropy value and weight of each influencing factor were calculated using the entropy method and entropy weight method, respectively. Based on this, an entropy model of the safety resilience evolution of the MHCTS was established. The evolution process falls under four categories of disturbance strengths, which were simulated using the system dynamics method. The degree of contribution of absorptive, adaptive, and restorative capacities to the improvement of system safety resilience under four disturbance conditions and the sensitivity of each influencing factor to the absorptive, adaptive, and restorative capacities were analyzed. Based on the analyses, targeted resilience improvement strategies are proposed. The research results provide a theoretical reference for the study of safety resilience mechanisms and resilience management in the MHCTS.