Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe

Abstract

Using the existing collected data from European and African countries, we present a statistical analysis of forecast of the future number of daily deaths and infections up to 10 September 2020. We presented numerous statistical analyses of collected data from both continents using numerous existing statistical theories. Our predictions show the possibility of the second wave of spread in Europe in the worse scenario and an exponential growth in the number of infections in Africa. The projection of statistical analysis leads us to introducing an extended version of the well-blancmange function to further capture the spread with fractal properties. A mathematical model depicting the spread with nine sub-classes is considered, first converted to a stochastic system, where the existence and uniqueness are presented. Then the model is extended to the concept of nonlocal operators; due to nonlinearity, a modified numerical scheme is suggested and used to present numerical simulations. The suggested mathematical model is able to predict two to three waves of the spread in the near future.

A secondary approach with conventional medicines and supplements to recuperate current COVID-19 status

“…The number of cases in the 2nd wave was much greater than the 1st wave ( Fig. 1 C) which was predicted earlier by Atangana et al [15] . Cases per month were highest in the Americas but the highest deaths were observed in Europe region although, infection rate and fatality are coming down gradually.…”

A case study of 2019-nCOV cases in Argentina with the real data based on daily cases from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 using classical and fractional derivatives

“…A fractional-order COVID-19 model with delay has been proposed in [ 19 ]. Atangana et al in [ 20 ] have discussed a mathematical model of COVID-19 with deterministic and stochastic approaches. The authors in [ 21 – 23 ] have also simulated the dynamics of 2019-nCOV by using effective mathematical models.…”

Analysis of a discrete mathematical COVID-19 model

“…Consequently, the discrete SEIR model can be an excellent motivation to work with students and better process all the information that comes to us on these topics. In what follows, to refer to the original model of differential equations, we will use the expression ’continuous model’ and for more details see [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] .…”