Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach

Boonen, Tim J.; Li, Hong

doi:10.1007/s13524-017-0610-2

Cited by 33 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Thus these findings contribute to existing literature such as Bhargava et al (2001), Hanewald (2011), French andO'Hare (2014), Niu and Melenberg (2014), Khemka and Roberts (2015), Boonen and Li (2017) in promoting a significant impact of economic growth on mortality. Factually, the next GDP incorporated factor of mortality model-that is, LC-GDP-provides the best fitting of MAPE and MAD for all female data in the selected eurozone countries.…”

Section: Estimation and Quality Of Fittingsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…Factually, the next GDP incorporated factor of mortality model-that is, LC-GDP-provides the best fitting of MAPE and MAD for all female data in the selected eurozone countries. Thus these findings contribute to existing literature such as Bhargava et al (2001), Hanewald (2011), French andO'Hare (2014), Niu and Melenberg (2014), Khemka and Roberts (2015), Boonen and Li (2017) in promoting a significant impact of economic growth on mortality. For unisex, as presented in Table 7, the proposed modification of the OL model (OL-GDP) gives better results for most countries in comparison to the other models.…”

Section: Figuresupporting

confidence: 78%

“…In the very recent study conducted by Boonen and Li (2017), the inclusion of economic growth (represented by GDP per capita) was found to provide a better in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast performance for each group of countries observed. Their multi-population model 14 generates a lower (higher) forecasted life expectancy period for countries with high (low) GDP as compared to another mortality model under study.…”

Section: Economic Growth and Mortality Ratesmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Concurrently, various studies have been conducted to investigate the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on mortality in different socioeconomic groups for various EU countries such as the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Greece, Finland, Iceland, Denmark, and Slovakia (Cairns et al, 2016;Regidor et al, 2016;Rolden et al, 2014;Rosicova et al, 2016;Tapia Granados & Rodriguez, 2015). However, only a few authors have proposed a new mortality model that incorporates the identified exogenous economic factors (see, e.g., Boonen & Li, 2017;French & O'Hare, 2014;Niu & Melenberg, 2014).…”

Section: Economic Growth and Mortality Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus an accurate identification of factors affecting the mortality experience in a particular country is crucial. On the other hand, evidence of a relationship between economic changes and mortality in many developed and developing countries has been presented by many researchers (Boonen & Li, 2017;Hanewald, 2011;Hanewald, Post, & Grundl, 2011;Niu & Melenberg, 2014;Preston, 2007;Rolden, van Bodegom, van den Hout, & Westendorp, 2014;Tapia Granados, 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Seklecka¹,

Lazam

Pantelous

et al. 2018

Journal of Forecasting

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Socioeconomic status is commonly conceptualized as the social standing or well‐being of an individual or society. Higher socioeconomic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy) on mortality for the nine most populous eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time‐dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87(419), 659–671) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2012, 50, 12–25) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic‐related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0 and 89, and similar for unisex data, are provided. This new model shows a better fitting and more plausible forecast among a significant number of eurozone countries. An in‐depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.

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Section: Estimation and Quality Of Fittingsupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Figuresupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Economic Growth and Mortality Ratesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Economic Growth and Mortality Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Seklecka¹,

Lazam

Pantelous

et al. 2018

Journal of Forecasting

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Space, mortality, and economic growth

Cupido,

Jevtić,

Boonen

2024

Journal of Forecasting

Self Cite

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Currently, most academic research involving the mortality modeling of multiple populations mainly focuses on factor‐based approaches. Increasingly, these models are enriched with socio‐economic determinants. Yet these emerging mortality models come with little attention to interpretable spatial model features. Such features could be highly valuable to demographers and old‐age benefit providers in need of a comprehensive understanding of the impact of economic growth on mortality across space. To address this, we propose and investigate a family of models that extend the seminal Li‐Lee factor‐based stochastic mortality modeling framework to include both economic growth, as measured by the real gross domestic product (GDP), and spatial patterns of the contiguous United States mortality. Model selection performed on the introduced new class of spatial models shows that based on the AIC criteria, the introduced spatial lag of GDP with GDP (SLGG) model had the best fit. The out‐of‐sample forecast performance of SLGG model is shown to be more accurate than the well‐known Li–Lee model. When it comes to model implications, a comparison of annuity pricing across space revealed that the SLGG model admits more regional pricing differences compared to the Li‐Lee model.

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Politics and health outcomes: A path analytic approach

Çınaroğlu

2018

Health Planning & Management

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SummarySocial and health policies and political participation are associated with each political tradition related to public health outcomes. However, there is a lack of evidence for the relationship between policy and outcomes. This study seeks to determine the relationship between politics, labour and welfare state indicators, economic inequality, and health outcome indicators. Data to test the model was obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) that belongs to the 81 provinces of Turkey. Path analysis was used to model the associations between policy, labour and welfare states, economic inequality, and health outcomes. To test the goodness of fit of the model, multiple criteria of model fit indices were utilised. The fit of the respecified path analytic model data is good (normed fit index [NFI] is 0.91, comparative fit index [CFI] is 0.92, goodness of fit index [GFI] is 0.91, and adjusted goodness of fit index [AGFI] is 0.93). Study results illustrate a strong relationship between voter partisanship, employment rate, satisfaction from both social security and health services, and life expectancy at birth and mortality. These results represent an important step towards understanding the elusive relationship between policy and health outcomes. Designing socially inclusive policies, considering labour market opportunities, and enhancing the population's well‐being are advisable strategies for policymakers who wish to optimise public health outcomes.

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Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach

Cited by 33 publications

References 29 publications

Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Space, mortality, and economic growth

Politics and health outcomes: A path analytic approach

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