Modeling and Forecasting Indian Malaria Incidence Using Generalized Time Series Models

Time Series Analysis of Malaria Cases to Assess the Impact of Various Interventions Over the Last Three Decades and Forecasting India's Malaria Towards 2030 Elimination Goals

“…The selection of the appropriate forecasting model depends on the predictive accuracy, which is largely determined by RMSE, MAPE, MASE, MAE, MAD, 95% con dence intervals, and visual observation. In addition, AIC and BIC are also used as model-tting criteria [12,24,25].…”

“…Several malaria forecasting studies have been conducted in India, China, Burundi, Mali, Afghanistan, Bhutan and Ethiopia [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. However, the studies conducted in India either used hospital based data [12] or data of shorter time lags [13][14][15], which did not allow for the robust time series analysis and predictive malaria forecasting.…”