Modeling and Analyzing Transmission of Infectious Diseases Using Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

Abstract

Some infectious diseases such as COVID-19 have the characteristics of long incubation period, high infectivity during the incubation period, and carriers with mild or no symptoms which are more likely to cause negligence. Global researchers are working to find out more about the transmission of infectious diseases. Modeling plays a crucial role in understanding the transmission of the new virus and helps show the evolution of the epidemic in stages. In this paper, we propose a new general transmission model of infectious diseases based on the generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN). First, we qualitatively analyze the transmission mode of each stage of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and explain the factors that affect the spread of the epidemic. Second, the GSPN model is built to simulate the evolution of the epidemic. Based on this model’s isomorphic Markov chain, the equilibrium state of the system and its changing laws under different influencing factors are analyzed. Our paper demonstrates that the proposed GSPN model is a compelling tool for representing and analyzing the transmission of infectious diseases from system-level understanding, and thus contributes to providing decision support for effective surveillance and response to epidemic development.

Hepatitis C Virus Dynamic Transmission Models Among People Who Inject Drugs

“…These models are used to study how a system behaves and responds to interventions, 11,19 for instance studying whether the prevalence of an infection increases or decreases in the absence of intervention, and also studying the fraction of population that needs to be immunized to prevent the pathogen from causing an epidemic. 10 Infectious diseases transmission dynamic models are also used to better understand the system itself -for example, understanding whether the previous infection provides a protection from re-infection or not; or understanding and identifying the number of new cases that depend on the proportion of asymptomatic infectious individuals. 12,19 https://doi.org/10.2147/IDR.S403133…”

“…9 Infectious diseases transmission models have been used to predict the magnitude and duration of infectious diseases outbreaks to estimate significant biological and clinical parameters and to evaluate the potential impact of interventions. 10,11 The infectious diseases transmission model used is preferably defined by the question of interest and fitted to specific pathogens which give extraordinary powerful insights into the drivers of infectious diseases dynamicity. 12 The model is also used for establishment of a framework to explore the impact and efficacy of lots of mitigation approaches.…”