Modelagem hidrológica da bacia do rio Muriaé com TOPMODEL, telemetria e sensoriamento remoto

Abstract

This study comprises the hydrological modeling of the Muriaé river basin. Hydrologic simulations were performed with the TOPMODEL hydrological model, with precipitation measurements and discharge estimation from the Brazilian Hydrometeorology Network (RHN). It was also used satellite precipitation estimates with the CMORPH method, and the integrated precipitation analysis between the precipitation measured by the telemetry and the estimated by satellite through objective statistical analysis (SOAS). The calibration and validation of the TOPMODEL model were performed for hydrological events between 2016 and 2018. The calibration of the TOPMODEL model with the above precipitation data series was evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), which ranged from 0,7 and 0,9. Validation of the TOPMODEL model with independent series resulted in NSE from-0,8 to 0,3. This result is largely due to the small number of hydrological events since the beginning of telemetry measurements at the Muriaé river basin. TOPMODEL was also used to simulate flows in series with annual period between 2009 and 2013. Calibration and validation with annual series resulted in NSE ~ 0.6. Notably, CMORPH simulations tend to underestimate flow rates, while with SOAS the performance was better, especially for flood periods. Therefore, the results suggest the applicability of the TOPMODEL model for hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river basin, with the best results obtained when the modeling started in a drought period and the rainfall data represented the spatial variability of the rainfall.

Governança Ambiental na Macrometrópole Paulista face à Variabilidade Climática

“…A previsão em sistemas de alertas para eventos críticos utiliza modelos hidrológicos que permitem antecipar a ocorrência de eventos extremos. Especificamente para previsão de inundações, cuja principal forçante é a precipitação, modelos conceituais podem ser alimentados com diferentes fontes de informações tais como dados de telemetria, radar e/ou satélite (ROCHA FILHO, 2010;SALVIANO, 2019) ou ainda utilizar previsões numéricas de precipitação, que se mostram estratégicas em ampliar o horizonte de previsão (CALVETTI, 2011;MELLER, 2012;FAN, 2015). Em sistemas de previsão sazonal, o uso de modelos hidrológicos alimentados com previsões numéricas pode melhorar a destreza da previsão, e contribuir nas estimativas de disponibilidade hídrica, orientar operações de reservatórios e realizar previsões de secas e cheias (CROCHEMORE et al, 2016).…”