Modelado de la distribución potencial de especies de Pinaceae bajo escenarios de cambio climático en Michoacán

Cruz-Cárdenas, Gustavo; López–Mata, Lauro; Silva, José Tomás da; Bernal-Santana, Nelly; Estrada-Godoy, Francisco; López-Sandoval, José Antonio

doi:10.5154/r.rchscfa.2015.06.027

Cited by 25 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Therefore, it is necessary for screening variables to run SDMs. There are various selection techniques such as expert knowledge method [27,62], pair-wise correlation analyses [72], X 2 test [73], PCA analysis [74], and jackknife analyses [75][76][77][78]. In our study, we used jackknife test and Pearson's correlation coefficient to select variables.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) in Qilian Mountains

Rong

Zhao

Liu

et al. 2019

Forests

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Qinghai spruce forests play a key role in water conservation in the dry region of northwest China. So, it is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on the species to implement adaptation strategies. Based on the four-emission scenario (i.e., RCP2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report, in the study, we predicted the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy (Maxent) model. Seven variables, selected from 22 variables according to correlation analysis combining with their contribution rates to the distribution, are used to simulate the potential distribution of the species under current and future scenarios. Simulated results are validated by area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results demonstrate that elevation, mean temperature of wettest quarter, annual mean temperature, and mean diurnal range are more important in dominating the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce. Ratios of the suitable area to the total study area are 34.3% in current climate condition, 34% in RCP2.6, 33.9% in RCP4.5, 33.8% in RCP6.0, and 30.5% in RCP8.5, respectively. The warmer the climate condition is, the more area of higher suitable classification is changed to that of lower suitable classification. The ratios of real distribution area in simulated unsuitable class to the real distribution area change from 4.3% (60.7 km2) in the current climate to 13% (185 km2) in RCP8.5, suggesting that the real distribution area may decrease in the future. We conclude that there is a negative effect of climate change on the distribution of Qinghai spruce forest. The result can help decision-makers to draft adaptation countermeasures based on climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) in Qilian Mountains

Rong

Zhao

Liu

et al. 2019

Forests

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“…Theoretically, ENM could help to locate the ideal conditions for plant species important for beekeeping and therefore improve the location of apiaries. ENM have been used for estimating floristic richness patterns (Villaseñor et al, 2013;Alvarado-Cárdenas et al, 2017), designing sampling methods for rare or little-known species (Gil & Lobo, 2012), evaluating the impact of land use changes on threatened species and proposed conservation sites (Sánchez-Cordero et al, 2005;Peterson et al, 2006;Yáñez-Arenas et al, 2012), predicting species' potential future distribution under climate change scenarios (Lane & Jarvis, 2007;Feria-Arroyo et al, 2013;Cruz-Cárdenas et al, 2016;Estrada et al, 2016) and delimiting the potential distribution of invasive species (Palma-Ordaz & Delgadillo-Rodríguez, 2014). In relation to beekeeping, ENM have been used to estimate the distribution of bees in growing areas (Polce et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of Ecological Niche Models of Plant Species to Optimize Placement of Apiaries

Rodríguez

Vázquez-Sánchez

Cruz-Cárdenas

et al. 2019

Journal of Apicultural Science

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Apiaries must be located in areas with abundant flora as they are the nutritional base for Apis mellifera. Asteraceae is one of the most diverse plant families in Mexico and several of its species are of interest for beekeepers. The objective of this study was to determine the best sites for the placement of apiaries with the use of ecological niche models (ENM) of some Asteraceae species important for bees in two basins of the state of Michoacán, Mexico. ENM for thirty species were obtained through records of their presence, twenty abiotic variables and one biotic variable, and a map of species richness was made to determine which sites would be environmentally appropriate for apiaries. The models were statistically evaluated using the AUC_Maxent, partial_ROC and the binomial tests and were verified in the field. The first two tests’ models had values of 0.70 to 1 and the binomial test’s models had values of 1. The map showed six suitable areas with the greatest richness of species. The corroboration in the field proved ENM effective by finding twenty-two of the thirty modeled species inside the predicted areas. Our results support that ENM are a good strategy to predict the ideal habitat for species important for beekeeping, and thus determine the best places to establish apiaries in the region.

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“…En México, los escenarios de cambio climático indican que las pináceas serían de los grupos más afectados por el aumento de la temperatura (Sáenz et al, 2012;Cruz-Cárdenas et al, 2016); una de las especies más susceptibles es Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. et Cham., que podría reducir hasta 87.6 % su área de distribución para 2060 (Sáenz et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Según la FAO (2003) por efecto del cambio climático, para 2050 alrededor de 25 % de la biodiversidad afrontaría un mayor riesgo de extinción, en especial, aquellos taxones arbóreos de coníferas que habitan los bosques templados del centro de México (Sáenz et al, 2012;Cruz-Cárdenas et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Los autores probaron dos modelos; CCC (Centro Climático Canadiense) y GDFL (Laboratorio Geofísico de Dinámica de Fluidos) con los que determinaron que solo nueve de 33 ANP terrestres federales evaluadas en el país, no serían impactadas por los efectos del cambio climático. Otras contribuciones (Sáenz et al, 2012;Islas et al, 2015;Cruz-Cárdenas et al, 2016) confirman el planteamiento de la FAO (2003).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

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Escenarios de cambio climático (CMIP-5) para tres áreas naturales protegidas en el Eje Neovolcánico Transversal

Quiñonez

Calderón

Jiménez-Pérez

et al. 2018

RMCF

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Debido al cambio climático, los patrones de precipitación y temperatura ocasionarían cambios importantes en los ecosistemas del mundo. Los Modelos de Circulación Global (MCG) se utilizan para simular el clima a futuro y con ello se generan escenarios climáticos. El objetivo del presente trabajo consistió en estimar escenarios climáticos para 2045-2069 para las áreas naturales protegidas (ANP) Pico de Orizaba, Nevado de Toluca y Volcán Nevado de Colima. Se emplearon las capas climáticas mensuales a 1 km2 para el presente y futuro de los MCG CRNMCM5 y GDFL_CM3 con un forzamiento radiactivo (RCP) 4.5 (emisiones de CO2 constantes) y 8.5 (emisiones de CO2 en aumento). Se recortaron las capas al tamaño de las ANP, y se ajustó la escala de 1 km2 a 30 m. Se generaron diversos escenarios de cambio climático. Los resultados para el periodo 2045-2069 indican una disminución en la precipitación pluvial entre 18 y 52 mm para el Pico de Orizaba, de 61 a 99 mm para el Nevado de Toluca y de 27 a 38 mm para el Volcán Nevado de Colima; un aumento en la temperatura media anual de 1.32 °C a 1.67 °C en el Pico de Orizaba, de 1.30 °C a 1.76 °C en el Nevado de Toluca y de 0.91 °C a 1 °C en el Nevado de Colima. Los cambios en ambas variables pueden propiciar incendios forestales más frecuentes, mayor incidencia de plagas forestales y menor recarga de los mantos acuíferos.

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Modelado de la distribución potencial de especies de Pinaceae bajo escenarios de cambio climático en Michoacán

Cited by 25 publications

References 16 publications

Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) in Qilian Mountains

Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) in Qilian Mountains

Use of Ecological Niche Models of Plant Species to Optimize Placement of Apiaries

Escenarios de cambio climático (CMIP-5) para tres áreas naturales protegidas en el Eje Neovolcánico Transversal

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