Model Predictive Optimization for distribution management in smart grids

Abstract

The traditional centralized power system is gradually being replaced by smart grids. However, an important design issue is how to perform accurate demand-response such that the power distribution management is effective. This includes two sub-problems, namely the accurate prediction of future electricity demand-response situations and the optimization of power distribution. In this work, we propose a novel Model Predictive Optimization (MPO) method for the advanced distribution management system in smart grids. Future electricity situations (surplus/deficit) are predicted using a customized Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Pairing between buyers and sellers of electricity are performed based on not only the current situation, but also considering future situations. As a result, trading pairs with overall near-optimal cost are found through concurrent and multiple instances of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), along with conflict resolution. Experimental results on 30 micro-grids show the error rate of the ARIMA prediction model to be less than 10%. The proposed MPO method saves totally 19.38% overall trading cost, if predictions are made for 4 future time slots.