Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications

Abstract

P r e f a c e I n t e r e s t i n human s e t t l e m e n t systems and p o l i c i e s h a s been a c r i t i c a l p a r t o f u r b a n -r e l a t e d work a t IIASA s i n c e i t s incept i o n .Recently t h i s i n t e r e s t h a s given r i s e t o a c o n c e n t r a t e d r e s e a r c h e f f o r t f o c u s i n g on m i g r a t i o n dynamics and s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s .Four s u b -t a s k s form t h e c o r e of t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t :I .t h e s t u d y of s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n dynamics;11. t h e d e f i n i t i o n and e l a b o r a t i o n of a new r e s e a r c h a r e a c a l l e d demometrics and i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o m i g r a t i o n a n a l y s i s and s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r ec a s t i n g ;111. t h e a n a l y s i s and d e s i g n o f m i g r a t i o n and s e t t l ement p o l i c y ;a comparative s t u d y of n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n and s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s and p o l i c i e s .T h i s p a p e r , t h e t h i r t e e n t h i n t h e dynamics s e r i e s , i s a summary review of 1IASA1s work on model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s . I t combines t h e major f i n d i n g s of two e a r l i e r p u b l i c a t i o n s (RM-75-57 and RR-76-09) w i t h more r e c e n t , a s y e t , u n p u b l i s h e d work. R e l a t e d p a p e r s i n t h e dynamics s e r i e s , and o t h e r p u b l i c at i o i l s o f t h e m i g r a t i o n and sett1emer.t s t u d y , a r e l i s t e d on t h e back page of t h i s r e p o r t .Andrei Rogers Chairman Human S e t t l e m e n t s and S e r v i c e s Area. November 1977 A b s t r a c t T h i s p a p e r c o n s i d e r s and c o n t r a s t s two a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s f o r c a p t u r i n g t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s e x h i b i t e d by age p a t t e r n s i n ob-s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n r a t e s .The m o r t a l i t y approach i s c o n s i d e r e d f i r s t and it i s shown how s u c h a n approach may be used t o i n f e r m i g r a t i o n f l o w s from two c o n s e c u t i v e p l a c e -o f -r e s i d e n c e -b y -p l a c eo f -b i r t h c e n s u s a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n s .The f e r t i l i t y approach i s c o n s i d e r e d n e x t , and t e c h n i q u e s f o r g r a d u a t i n g m i g r a t i o n age p r o f i l e s a r e d e s c r i b e d .The a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f b o t h a p p r o a c h e s a r e t h e n b r i e f l y a s s e s s e d .The a u t h o r s g r a t e f u l l y acknowledge t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a l a s s i s t a n c e of F r a n s W i l l e k e n s .I n c a r r y i n g o u t t h i s r e s e a r c h

How is internal migration reshaping metropolitan populations in Latin America? A new method and new evidence

“…This finding points to the fact that the overall impact of internal migration on reducing the local proportion of older people was not because of older people leaving large cities, but because of working-age people moving in, particularly those in the 15-29 age group. This result is consistent with observed low propensities to migrate among older people (Rogers et al 1978), and also reflects the absence of a double bulge in the age distribution of migration in LA countries (ECLAC 2012). In industrialized countries, migration age profiles tend -14, 15-29, 30-44, 45-59, and 60+, 1995-2000 and 2005-10 City to peak first around the mid-20s to early 30s, and peak for a second time around retirement age, reflecting the mobility of older people to rural and coastal areas (Hugo and Bell 1998).…”

How often do australians move? alternative measures of population mobility

“…Long (1973) equates this to a multiple decrement procedure like that used to calculate expected years of working life. However, migration expectancy tables do not formally segment the population into multiple 'states' and the net reproduction rate is perhaps a closer analog (Bogue 1969;Rogers, Racquillet and Castro 1978).…”

“…Long (1973) equates this to a multiple decrement procedure like that used to calculate expected years of working life. However, migration expectancy tables do not formally segment the population into multiple 'states' and the net reproduction rate is perhaps a closer analog (Bogue 1969;Rogers, Racquillet and Castro 1978).The central assumptions of migration expectancy are that migration and mortality rates remain unchanged, that movers change residence only once during the interval, and that people reporting the same address at the beginning and end of the interval did not move (Sharma 1995). Since migration rates from the census represent the probability of changing residence over the year, the results technically refer to the number of years with moves, rather than the number of moves which are made (Long 1988: 297).…”

Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks

“…A large body of evidence has accumulated that demonstrates the extent of these regularities (see, for example, Rogers, Racquillet, and Castro 1978;Rees 1979;Rogers and Castro 1981;Bates and Bracken 1982;Rogers and Castro 1986;Rogers 1988;Rogers and Rajbhandary 1997;. Figure 1 demonstrates the standard migration age profile.…”

“…The migration intensities of children echo those of their parents: moves are relatively frequent at the infant ages, when parents are younger and more mobile; then become less frequent until sometime in the teens; and then once again become more frequent as offspring begin to move out of the parental home. Rogers, Racquillet, and Castro (1978) were the first to introduce a mathematical representation of the age pattern of migration, denoting it a model migration schedule. It has subsequently also been described as a parameterized model schedule and a multiexponential model schedule (because of the exponential functions in the equation).…”