Model-informed health and socio-economic benefits of enhancing global equity and access to Covid-19 vaccines

Abstract

We take a model-informed approach to the view that a global equitable access (GEA) to Covid-19 vaccines is the key to bring this pandemic to an end. We show that the equitable redistribution (proportional to population size) of the currently available vaccines is not sufficient to stop the pandemic, whereas a 60% increase in vaccine access (the global share of vaccinated people) would have allowed the current distribution to stop the pandemic in about a year of vaccination, saving millions of people in poor countries. We then investigate the interplay between access to vaccines and their distribution among rich and poor countries, showing that the access increase to stop the pandemic gets minimized at + 32% by the equitable distribution (− 36% in rich countries and + 60% in poor ones). To estimate the socio-economic benefits of a vaccination campaign with enhanced global equity and access (eGEA), we compare calibrated simulations of the current scenario with a hypothetical, vaccination-intensive scenario that assumes high rollouts (shown however by many rich and poor countries during the 2021–2022 vaccination campaign) and an improved equity from the current 2.5:1 to a 2:1 rich/poor-ratio of the population fractions vaccinated per day. Assuming that the corresponding + 130% of vaccine production is made possible by an Intellectual Property waiver, we show that the money saved on vaccines globally by the selected eGEA scenario overcomes the 5-year profit of the rights holders in the current situation. This justifies compensation mechanisms in exchange for the necessary licensing agreements. The good news is that the benefits of this eGEA scenario are still relevant, were we ready to implement it now.

Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters through New Data Incorporation

“…Scientific research, particularly that grounded in mathematical models, has played a pivotal role in steering these interventions, providing valuable insights and innovative ideas that have informed decision-making processes and enhanced the effectiveness of public health strategies on a global scale. These proposed strategies have encompassed a spectrum of measures, including widespread lockdown and social distancing protocols [1,2], the promotion and enforcement of maskwearing, extensive testing, and contact tracing efforts [3][4][5], the rapid development and deployment of vaccines [6,7], and public awareness campaigns [8][9][10].…”