Model for forecasting Olea europaea L. airborne pollen in South-West Andalusia, Spain

Abstract

Data on predicted average and maximum airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which these maximum values are expected are of undoubted value to allergists and allergy sufferers, as well as to agronomists. This paper reports on the development of predictive models for calculating total annual pollen output, on the basis of pollen and weather data compiled over the last 19 years (1982-2000) for Córdoba (Spain). Models were tested in order to predict the 2000 pollen season; in addition, and in view of the heavy rainfall recorded in spring 2000, the 1982-1998 data set was used to test the model for 1999. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that the variables exerting the greatest influence on the pollen index were rainfall in March and temperatures over the months prior to the flowering period. For prediction of maximum values and dates on which these values might be expected, the start of the pollen season was used as an additional independent variable. Temperature proved the best variable for this prediction. Results improved when the 5-day moving average was taken into account. Testing of the predictive model for 1999 and 2000 yielded fairly similar results. In both cases, the difference between expected and observed pollen data was no greater than 10%. However, significant differences were recorded between forecast and expected maximum and minimum values, owing to the influence of rainfall during the flowering period.

Plants remember past weather: a study for atmospheric pollen concentrations of Ambrosia, Poaceae and Populus

“…For the start (end) of the season, we used the first (last) date on which 1 pollen grain m −3 of air is recorded, and at least five consecutive (preceding) days also show 1 or more pollen grains m −3 (Galán et al 2001). For a given pollen type, the longest pollen season during the 11-year period was considered for each year.…”

The influence of extreme high and low temperatures and precipitation totals on pollen seasons of Ambrosia, Poaceae and Populus in Szeged, southern Hungary

“…The pollen season is defined by its start and end dates. For the start (end) of the season, we used the first (last) date on which one pollen grain/m 3 air is recorded and at least five consecutive (preceding) days also show one or more pollen grains/m 3 air (Galán et al, 2001). Evidently, the pollen season for all three pollen types varies from year to year.…”

“…Bartková-Ščevková, 2003;Rodríguez-Rajo et al, 2005;Štefanič et al, 2005;Kasprzyk, 2008;Recio et al, 2010), while others, based on meteorological data, use different techniques for predicting pollen characteristics (e.g. Galán et al, 2001;Aznarte et al, 2007;García-Mozo et al, 2009).…”

Risk Factors for Asthma Hospitalization among Adults and Elderly

“…For the start (end) of the season we used the first (last) date on which at least 1 pollen grain•m-3 of air is recorded and at least 5 consecutive (preceding) days also show 1 or more pollen grains m-3 [39]. Evidently, the pollen season varies from year to year.…”