Model for calculating quantitative indicators for assessing the efficiency of protecting a critical infrastructure object from impacts of unmanned aviation complexes

Abstract

The growing potential for the use of unmanned systems, which are designed to perform combat missions in the air, on the ground, on/under water than ever before, leads to an increase in threats to the defense landscape of defense forces. This is the reason for the rapid growth of interest in technologies that neutralize threats of this type. For the party that protects a critical object from an air attack by an unmanned aircraft complex (or group), the issue of guaranteed effectiveness or economic proportionality of methods of protection against low-cost attacks that can be carried out by such complexes is always relevant. The answer to this question begins with the availability of a device for calculating quantitative indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of protecting a critical infrastructure object from an air attack. The process of functioning of a critical infrastructure object, which includes a deployed protection system, a control point and subsystems with critical equipment, through which the general purpose of this object is carried out, is proposed to be described by analogy with the model of the process of functioning of a renewable system with limited element reliability. In order to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of the protection of a critical infrastructure object from air attacks by unmanned aerial systems, it is proposed to take a comprehensive indicator of the reliability of the functioning of the renewable system, which consists of the following components: the readiness factor, the vulnerability factor and the protection from air attacks. Expressions of calculation formulas are given in accordance with the proposed process description model. The obtained indicators for the quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of the protection of a critical infrastructure object from air attacks will be converted into specific proposals for persons who make decisions on the selection of the necessary types of countermeasures against unmanned aircraft systems for the expansion of the defense system, and which are required for the justification of financial and economic costs when overcoming this type of threat. The directions of further research in order to ensure the specified indicators of the protection of a critical infrastructure object will be the method of calculating the reservation of protection means.