Model for Assessing the Probability of Revocation of a License From the Russian Bank

Bidzhoyan, Davit S.

doi:10.26794/2587-5671-2018-22-2-26-37

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…For example, in the banking sphere current control by the Central Bank over other commercial banks is difficult because of the delay in the receipt of information about the state of bank finances. This problem is considered in [10]. We suggest involving open sources of information and, on the basis of a mathematical model, forming a complex indicator using such data [2,11].…”

Section: Statement Of the Research Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Valuating the position of the control object based on a universal complex indicator using structured and unstructured data

Bogdanova¹,

Zhukova²

2021

Bus. Inform.

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Valuating the position of a controlled object using indicators which are management and control tools is widely used in many areas of the economy. Usually such indicators are based on internal data, however, as the volume of available open information grows, algorithms for valuation of the position of certain control objects and on open structured data are appearing. The disadvantage of these models is their narrow specialization and binding only to structured, and sometimes strictly official data, which, as a rule, have a rare publication frequency. This does not allow you to track the change in the position of the object at different times. The authors have proposed a concept for constructing a universal complex indicator (UCI) for express valuation of the position of a controlled object in various types of activity: banking, educational, industrial, etc. Another difference in the construction of the UCI is that the concept presented in the article assumes, as a reference point, to take into account the requirements of regulatory authorities, while in most Russian and foreign studies, indicators are built for the needs of investors. It is also proposed to use, along with structured and unstructured data, tracking the dynamics of changes in the position of the control object. To determine the UCI values on the basis of various econometric models and methods, the components that characterize the requirements of the control bodies to the control object are calculated; using them the UCI value is determined from the truth table. The concept proposed was tested to build an express valuation of the financial position of 108 banks for the period from 1 January 2018 to 1 February 2020. In accordance with the requirements of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the values of the three UCI components were obtained, and the value was calculated for each bank. The predictive ability of the constructed model, tested on three banks of the test sample, was confirmed by the consistency of the express valuation with their actual position in March 2020.

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Section: Statement Of the Research Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Valuating the position of the control object based on a universal complex indicator using structured and unstructured data

Bogdanova¹,

Zhukova²

2021

Bus. Inform.

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“…In modern economic research binary choice models and logit models in particular are used to solve various economic problems. These models are widely used in scoring systems, when a bank assesses the borrower's creditworthiness [7], when the probability of the bank license revocation is analyzed [8], when liquidation factors of enterprises are studied [9]. In work [10], both logit models and probit and tobit models were applied in the studies of the effectiveness of stimulating investment methods in the timber industry complex.…”

Section: Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Binary Choice Models-based Assessment of Company’s Financial Sustainability

2019

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Assessment of financial sustainability is a key instrument that every company should use to successfully operate in the contemporary marketplace. In this paper profit was chosen as one of the sustainability indices and binary choice model logistics regression model (logit model) was built for that index. The research data for this study is drawn from accounting statements of a textile industry business in Samara city. A combination of econometric approaches was used in the data analysis. Binary choice models were adopted in this research. Then those models were estimated for validity. Also scenario forecasts methodology was employed in this study. Several logit models with a set of explanatory variables were constructed. After the comparison of those models the preferred one was determined. Based on that model a scenario for profits was forecasted including both the worst-case and the best-case ones. The average-case scenario forecast was also made.

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“…Актуальность темы подтверждается тем, что финансовое оздоровление коммерческих банков для восстановления их устойчивости представляет особую значимость не только для банковского сегмента, но и всей экономической системы страны, что подтверждается работами Д. С. Биджояна [1], Д. А. Малининой [2], С. И. Овсянникова [3], С. А. Пальниченко и А. Л. Байбараковой [4] и др. При всей важности тема финансового оздоровления кредитных организаций остается недостаточно изученной.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

The Essence and Mechanism of Financial Recovery of Lending Institutions

Osipova

Gavrilenko

2020

Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Political, Sociological and Economic Sciences

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The current situation in the banking sector of the Russian Federation reveals a high degree of instability of lending institutions. In this regard, the Bank of Russia acts as a mega-regulator: its policy is to stabilize the banking market by using various financial and administrative instruments. Most commercial banks are not able to cope with the new requirements and regulations imposed by the state. As a result, they leave the market and recognize their insolvency. The present article introduces some statistics that characterizes the state of the banking sector over the past six years and confirms the situation described above. The existing banking legislation proved unable to determine the concept of insolvency of a commercial bank. The authors proposed a more specific definition of this concept, which fully reflects the essence of this economic phenomenon. In order to avoid bankruptcy, a credit institution may resort to a financial recovery procedure. A prompt and complete procedure gives an opportunity to avoid negative consequences and resume banking activities. The authors introduced a new interpretation of the financial recovery procedure in order to highlight the essence and specific features of the mechanism in the current economic conditions. The article presents a classification and a detailed roadmap of financial recovery measures. The roadmap provides a gradual financial recovery of the lending institution, which can be interpreted as the development of an economy.

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Model for Assessing the Probability of Revocation of a License From the Russian Bank

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

Valuating the position of the control object based on a universal complex indicator using structured and unstructured data

Valuating the position of the control object based on a universal complex indicator using structured and unstructured data

Binary Choice Models-based Assessment of Company’s Financial Sustainability

The Essence and Mechanism of Financial Recovery of Lending Institutions

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