This paper details a preliminary evaluation of the economics and commercial risks of deploying the steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technique for the in-situ extraction of the oil component of the Nigerian tar sands. The workflow consists of parameter screening, experimental design, responsesurface generation and Monte-Carlo simulation. With the net present value (NPV) as the objective function, we evaluate the impacts of the reservoir models (oil production and steam-injection profiles), project costs, hydrocarbon (oil and gas) price and the fiscal regime on project economics and commerciality.Within the range of parameters investigated, the uncertainties associated with the reservoir model, oil price, operating expenditure (OPEX) and capital expenditure (CAPEX) are found to be the main determinants of the commercial risks of the project. The fiscal policies do not appear to have much impact, at least within the parameter space examined.Overall, it is estimated that SAGD has more than 60% chance of economic success (NPV > 0), suggesting that this recovery technique is commercially attractive for the in-situ exploitation of the Nigerian bitumen deposit. The commercial prospects of this technique notwithstanding, the potential risks are highlighted, while options for mitigating such risks within the Nigerian context are discussed.