Model-Based Yield Gap Assessment in Nepal’s Diverse Agricultural Landscape

Abstract

Rice, wheat, maize, millet, and barley are the five major staple cereal crops in Nepal. However, their yields are low, and imports are needed to meet domestic demand. In this study, we quantify the gap between current and potentially attainable yields in Nepal, estimate how much additional fertilizer and irrigation are required to close the gap, and assess if self-sufficiency can thus be achieved. For this, we first test the ability of the crop model EPIC to reproduce reported yields in 1999–2014 accurately. On average, simulated and reported yields at the national level were in the same range, but at the district level, the error was large, as the resolutions of the available climate and soil input data were not high enough to depict the heterogenic conditions in Nepal adequately. In the main study, we show that average yield gaps in Nepal amount to 3.0 t/ha (wheat), 2.7 t/ha (rice), 2.9 t/ha (maize), 0.4 t/ha (barley), and 0.5 t/ha (millet). With additional irrigation and fertilization, yields can be increased by 0.1/2.3 t/ha (wheat), 0.4/1.3 t/ha (rice), 1.6/1.9 t/ha (maize), 0.1/0.3 t/ha (barley), and 0.1/0.4 t/ha (millet), respectively. The results show that providing reliable and affordable access to fertilizer should be a priority for closing yield gaps in Nepal.

Adoption of improved wheat varieties at Kanchanpur, Nepal

“…The production of wheat saw a massive rise after the introduction of semi-dwarf varieties in the 1960s in Nepal (Morris et al, 1992) -almost doubling the productivity. However, the yield potential has not been fully met as evidenced by a yield gap of 3.0 ton/ha in wheat between research and farmers' field (Basukala and Rasche, 2022). Furthermore, the current yield is well below than the neighboring countries; India (3.37 ton/ha) and China (5.48 ton/ha) (Kharel et al, 2021;Ramadas et al, 2019).…”