Abstract:Despite being the dominant risk analysis paradigm, event guessing is useless for systems design. In management, no event guessing has ever preempted the launch of policies that are decided, not designed. In engineering, events are not guessed; rather, they are created for testing purposes. Events provide inputs to which systems respond according to their structure, as described by state‐space or equivalent System Dynamics models. A new risk analysis framework draws design support information from model attribu… Show more
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