Mobility and Policy Responses During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

Cepaluni, Gabriel; Dorsch, Michael; Kovarek, Daniel

doi:10.3389/ijph.2022.1604663

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…For example, variations in policy approaches have allowed for the development of datasets such as an independent lockdown stringency index (Hale et al, 2021 ). These datasets, in turn, are allowing scholars to explore the nature of hitherto unmeasured trade-offs between lockdowns, mental health and economic activity (Aknin et al, 2022 ; Bajra et al, 2023 ; Cepaluni et al, 2022 ). There is thus scope to learn from past experiences and errors, and of course to penalise responsible political factions at subsequent elections.…”

Section: Epistemic Institutionalism In Public Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel externalities

Cowen

Schliesser

2023

Public Choice

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Novel externalities are social activities for which the emerging cost (or benefit) of the spillover is unknown and must be discovered. Negative novel externalities have regained international salience following the COVID-19 pandemic. Such cases frequently are invoked as evidence of the limits of liberal political economy for dealing with public emergencies. Through a re-reading of classical political economy with the modern state’s confrontation with infectious disease in mind, we defend the comparative efficacy of liberal democracy against authoritarian alternatives for coping with these social problems. Effective responses to novel externalities require producing and updating trustworthy public information and an independent scientific community to validate and interpret it. Those epistemic capacities are prevalent in liberal democratic regimes with multiple sources of political power, an independent civil society, and practices of academic freedom. Our analysis highlights the theoretical value of polycentrism and self-governance beyond their more familiar role, of increasing accountability and competition in the provision of local public goods, towards facilitating effective national policy.

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Section: Epistemic Institutionalism In Public Administrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel externalities

Cowen

Schliesser

2023

Public Choice

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“…The implementation of such interventions while maintaining social stability is a challenge to all countries. As a country consisting of more than 1.4 billion or 18% of the world’s population, China’s high population density, high volume, speed, and non-locality of human mobility would provide perfect conditions for the virus to spread ( 13 , 14 ). When highly transmissible Delta and Omicron variants resulted in massive surges in COVID-19 cases from December 2021 ( 15 , 16 ), China saw the largest spike for the past 2 years, despite determinedly pursuing one of the world’s strictest virus elimination policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions for China-bound travel on domestic COVID-19 outbreaks

Yang

Zeng³

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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ObjectivesNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented on China-bound travel have successfully mitigated cross-regional transmission of COVID-19 but made the country face ripple effects. Thus, adjusting these interventions to reduce interruptions to individuals’ daily life while minimizing transmission risk was urgent.MethodsAn improved Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model was built to evaluate the Delta variant’s epidemiological characteristics and the impact of NPIs. To explore the risk associated with inbound travelers and the occurrence of domestic traceable outbreaks, we developed an association parameter that combined inbound traveler counts with a time-varying initial value. In addition, multiple time-varying functions were used to model changes in the implementation of NPIs. Related parameters of functions were run by the MCSS method with 1,000 iterations to derive the probability distribution. Initial values, estimated parameters, and corresponding 95% CI were obtained. Reported existing symptomatic, suspected, and asymptomatic case counts were used as the training datasets. Reported cumulative recovered individual data were used to verify the reliability of relevant parameters. Lastly, we used the value of the ratio (Bias2/Variance) to verify the stability of the mathematical model, and the effects of the NPIs on the infected cases to analyze the sensitivity of input parameters.ResultsThe quantitative findings indicated that this improved model was highly compatible with publicly reported data collected from July 21 to August 30, 2021. The number of inbound travelers was associated with the occurrence of domestic outbreaks. A proportional relationship between the Delta variant incubation period and PCR test validity period was found. The model also predicted that restoration of pre-pandemic travel schedules while adhering to NPIs requirements would cause shortages in health resources. The maximum demand for hospital beds would reach 25,000/day, the volume of PCR tests would be 8,000/day, and the number of isolation rooms would reach 800,000/day within 30 days.ConclusionWith the pandemic approaching the end, reexamining it carefully helps better address future outbreaks. This predictive model has provided scientific evidence for NPIs’ effectiveness and quantifiable evidence of health resource allocation. It could guide the design of future epidemic prevention and control policies, and provide strategic recommendations on scarce health resource allocation.

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The paradox of pandemic mitigation? Moderating role of pandemic severity on the impact of social distancing policies: a cultural value perspective

Ma,

Chen,

Zhao

2024

Global Health

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Background Social distancing policies were of utmost importance during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies aimed to mitigate the severity of local outbreaks by altering public behavior. However, if the severity of the pandemic reduces, the impact of these policies on actual behavior may decrease. This study aims to examine, from a global perspective, whether the impact of social distancing policies on actual mobility is moderated by local pandemic severity and whether this moderating effect varies across cultural value contexts. Methods We combined multiple publicly available global datasets for structural equation model analysis. 17,513 rows of data from 57 countries included in all databases were analyzed. Multilevel moderated moderation models were constructed to test the hypotheses. Results More stringent policies in a region mean less regional mobility (β = -0.572, p < 0.001). However, the severity of local outbreaks negatively moderated this effect (β = -0.114, p < 0.001). When the pandemic was not severe, the influence of policy intensity on mobility weakened. Furthermore, based on Schwartz’s cultural values theory, cultural values of autonomy (β = -0.109, p = 0.011), and egalitarianism (β = -0.108, p = 0.019) reinforced the moderating effect of pandemic severity. On the other hand, cultural values of embeddedness (β = 0.119, p = 0.006) and hierarchy (β = 0.096, p = 0.029) attenuated the moderating effect. Conclusions Social distancing policies aim to reduce the severity of local pandemics; however, the findings reveal that mitigating local pandemics may reduce their impact. Future policymakers should be alert to this phenomenon and introduce appropriate incentives to respond. The results also show that the moderating role of pandemic severity varies across cultures. When policies are promoted to deal with global crises, policymakers must seriously consider the resistance and potential incentives of cultural values.

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Mobility and Policy Responses During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

Novel externalities

Novel externalities

The impact of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions for China-bound travel on domestic COVID-19 outbreaks

The paradox of pandemic mitigation? Moderating role of pandemic severity on the impact of social distancing policies: a cultural value perspective

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