Mobile Source CO₂ Mitigation through Smart Growth Development and Vehicle Fleet Hybridization

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a study on the effectiveness of smart growth development patterns and vehicle fleet hybridization in reducing mobile source emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) across 11 major metropolitan regions of the Midwestern U.S. over a 50-year period. Through the integration of a vehicle travel activity modeling framework developed by researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory with small area population projections, we model mobile source emissions of CO 2 associated with alternative land development and technology change scenarios between 2000 and 2050. Our findings suggest that under an aggressive smart growth scenario, growth in emissions expected to occur under a business as usual scenario is reduced by 34%, while the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicles throughout the light vehicle fleet is found to offset the expected growth in emissions by 97%. Our results further suggest that high levels of urban densification could achieve reductions in 2050 CO 2 emissions equivalent to those attainable through the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicle technologies.

Implications of uncertainty on regional CO2 mitigation policies for the U.S. onroad sector based on a high-resolution emissions estimate

“…All groups are analyzed at the U.S. state spatial scale. The national-average approach attempts to reflect the type of analysis typically employed prior to the availability of the Vulcan data product (Southworth et al, 2008;Stone et al, 2009).…”

“…Studies to date, have either focused on only one of these three components, have been completed only at the national scale, or have not explicitly represented CO 2 emissions (Puentes, 2008;Southworth et al, 2008;Stone et al, 2009). Southworth et al (2008) analyzed VMT and CO 2 emissions for the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. but only disaggregated vehicles into trucks and passenger cars and used a single national estimate of vehicle fuel efficiency for each of the two vehicle types.…”

“…While this study explored VMT in detail, there was no analysis of CO 2 emissions. Stone et al (2009) discussed the impact of Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) introduction on urban mobile CO 2 emissions. The study involved a sample of eleven cities located in six states in the Midwestern United States.…”

Air Quality and Urban Form in U.S. Urban Areas: Evidence from Regulatory Monitors

“…For example, steps to reduce urban air pollutants from motor vehicles may prove beneficial for physical activity levels 40À42 and transportation-CO 2 emissions. 43,44 Our use of regulatory data to estimate long-term populationweighted ambient pollution concentrations at the urban scale is both a strength and a limitation of this study. It is a strength because the data represent widely accepted "gold standard" measurements of air pollution and because our results are based on empirical evidence rather than models or theory.…”

RETRACTED: Introducing a transport carbon dioxide emissions vulnerability index for the Greater Dublin Area

“…Previous work has employed the ASIF (emissions are the product of activity [A], modal share [S], modal energy intensity [I], and fuel mix [F]) and IPAT (environmental impact [I] is the product of population [P], affluence [A], and technology [T]) frameworks to model travel behaviour (GrimesCasey et al, 2009;Schipper et al, 2000;Zegras, 2007) concluded that activity (e.g., VKT per capita) is an important factor in transportation emissions. Recent modelling of the US Midwest suggests that compact growth could achieve long-term emission reductions equivalent to the hybridization of the light duty vehicle fleet (Stone et al, 2009). …”