Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4231-2

Cited by 17 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 44 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…As serial correlation is often present in climatological time series, the method also involves an iterative procedure that takes the first lag autocorrelation into account (Zhang et al, 2000). For the data following a parametric Poisson distribution (mainly the precipitation type indicators), a logistic model was applied to transform the time series (McCullagh and Nelder, 1989). In this case, only the direction (positive and negative trends) and the significance of the fitted curve were used in the analysis.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-0 °C surface temperature and precipitation type patterns across Canada

Mekis

Stewart

Thériault³

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The 0 ∘C temperature threshold is critical for many meteorological and hydrological processes driven by melting and freezing in the atmosphere, surface, and sub-surface and by the associated precipitation varying between rain, freezing rain, wet snow, and snow. This threshold is especially important in cold regions such as Canada, because it is linked with freeze–thaw, snowmelt, and permafrost. This study develops a Canada-wide perspective on near-0 ∘C conditions using hourly surface temperature and precipitation type observations from 92 climate stations for the period from 1981 to 2011. In addition, nine stations from various climatic regions are selected for further analysis. Near-0 ∘C conditions are defined as periods when the surface temperature is between −2 and 2 ∘C. Near-0 ∘C conditions occur often across all regions of the country, although the annual number of days and hours and the duration of these events varies dramatically. Various types of precipitation (e.g., rain, freezing rain, wet snow, and ice pellets) sometimes occur with these temperatures. Near-0 ∘C conditions and the reported precipitation type occurrences tend to be higher in Atlantic Canada, although high values also occur in other regions. Trends of most temperature-based and precipitation-based indicators show little or no change despite a systematic warming in annual surface temperatures over Canada. Over the annual cycle, near-0 ∘C temperatures and precipitation often exhibit a pattern: short durations occur around summer, driven by the diurnal cycle, and a tendency toward longer durations around winter, associated with storms. There is also a tendency for near-0 ∘C surface temperatures to occur more often than expected relative to other temperature windows at some stations due, at least in part, to diabatic cooling and heating that take place with melting and freezing, respectively, in the atmosphere and at the surface.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-0 °C surface temperature and precipitation type patterns across Canada

Mekis

Stewart

Thériault³

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The closest grid cell to each meteorological station was selected for the 3 simulations and compared with observations. This method is also used in Matte et al (2018) and Lucas-Picher, Laprise, and Winger (2017).…”

Section: C Definition Of Freezing Rain Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The feasibility of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) using Bourgouin (2000) in-line diagnostic method to produce atmospheric conditions leading to freezing rain using a 0.11 horizontal resolution has recently been shown by Bresson, Laprise, Paquin, Thériault, and de Elía (2017). Furthermore, Matte et al (2018) diagnosed the type of precipitation using the same model resolution but with 5 di↵erent o↵-line precipitation-typing algorithms. They show that the various methods lead to di↵erent precipitation type distributions at the surface.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the Model Horizontal Resolution on Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Freezing Rain in Regional Climate Simulations

2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Freezing rain occurs in complex atmospheric conditions when the temperature is close to 0 C. To better understand how its occurrence will change in the future, there is a need to assess how well regional climate models can reproduce those conditions. The goal of the present study is to investigate the influence of the horizontal resolution on the simulation of freezing rain using the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Three CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis over Eastern North America at 0.11 , 0.22 and 0.44 were conducted over a period of 36 years (1979 to 2014). Freezing rain is diagnosed using an in-line diagnostic method for precipitation partitioning. A climatology study of annual and seasonal accumulated freezing rain was conducted. In addition, the ability of the three simulations to reproduce individual freezing rain events was evaluated. Our analyses include frequency and partitioning of di↵erent precipitation types and comparisons with observations. All simulations su ciently reproduced the climatology of freezing rain and show similar large-scale patterns. The number of freezing rain events tend to be overestimated at higher resolution and underestimated at lower resolution. Despite the overestimation, detailed maxima associated with freezing rain are well defined and located at higher resolution, notably in regions located in the St. Lawrence River Valley. Overall, this study is in agreement with other added value studies generally showing a mix of improvements and deteriorations of precipitation fields by the higher resolution simulations.

show abstract

“…The ongoing global warming is likely to affect the probabilities of freezing rain, and projected changes in the occurrences of such events have been estimated in a handful of previous studies. Many of these studies are based on a single climate model (e.g., Lambert & Hansen, ; Matte et al, ) or on a simple conceptual methodology (Klima & Morgan, ). Only a few studies have exploited the multimodel ensemble approach (Cheng et al, , ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of Present‐Day and Future Climatologies of Freezing Rain in Europe Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The effects of climate change on freezing rain in Europe under medium (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) future emission scenarios were assessed using seven regional climate model simulations conducted within the World Climate Research Project's COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over the European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). A precipitation-typing algorithm was applied to modeled three-dimensional subdaily time series of key meteorological variables to estimate the occurrence and amounts of freezing rain above selected intensity thresholds. The annual probabilities of freezing rain during the baseline and future (2071-2100) periods were calculated. The models agree that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the frequencies of freezing rain decrease in western, central, and southeastern Europe by 20-55% and increase in the northern and northeastern parts of the continent by 0-50% toward the end of the century. In the northern regions, the peaks in spring and fall with freezing rain amounts during the baseline period tend to merge to a single peak in winter during the future period. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the changes are qualitatively similar but smaller. Key Points: • Freezing rain increases in northern Europe and decreases in central Europe toward the future • Location-dependent climate change signals in seasonality of freezing rain were found • Modeled vertical temperature profiles are likely to explain model-based differences in results Correspondence to: M. Kämäräinen, matti.kamarainen@fmi.fi Citation: Kämäräinen, M., Hyvärinen, O., Vajda, A., Nikulin, G., van Meijgaard, E., Teichmann, C. , et al. (2018). Estimates of present-day and future climatologies of freezing rain in europe based on CORDEX regional climate models.

show abstract

Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

Cited by 17 publications

References 44 publications

Near-0 °C surface temperature and precipitation type patterns across Canada

Near-0 °C surface temperature and precipitation type patterns across Canada

Influence of the Model Horizontal Resolution on Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Freezing Rain in Regional Climate Simulations

Estimates of Present‐Day and Future Climatologies of Freezing Rain in Europe Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About