Mitigation and Development Pathways in the Near to Mid-term

Abstract

����������������������������������������������� 456 4.4 How to Shift Development Pathways and Accelerate the Pace and Scale of Mitigation ������� 459 4.4.1 Approaches, Enabling Conditions and Examples ������������������������������������������ 459 4.4.2 Adaptation, Development Pathways and Mitigation ������������������������������������������� 468 4.4.3 Risks and Uncertainties ����������������������������������������������� 471 2'Unconditional' NDCs refer to abatement efforts pledged without any conditions (this terminology is used by the literature, not by the Paris Agreement). They are based mainly on domestic abatement actions, although countries can use international cooperation to meet their targets. 'Conditional' NDCs require international cooperation, for example bilateral agreements under article 6, financing or monetary and/or technological transfers (14.3.2). Aggregate Effects of NDCs and Other Mitigation Efforts Relative to Long-term Mitigation Pathways3 Note that the statistical metrics reported are slightly different across the reports. For example, IPCC SR1.5 reported the 25th to 75th percentile range while the UNEP Emissions Gap Report uses median and 10th to 90th percentile ranges. In addition, this report applies 100-year GWPs from AR6 to aggregate across different GHG emission species, whereas 100-year GWPs from AR4 were applied in IPCC SR1.5 and UNEP 2020a. The application of AR6 GWPs on average leads to increase of estimates by about 1.3% and ranges are wider due to the difference in statistical error metrics.

Enabling future climate policy : an analysis of policy gaps and progress under the Paris Agreement

“…This corresponds to a 3.6% (range: 3.1-4.2%) reduction compared to emissions projections excluding the effect of COVID-19. Our results are within that range of other studies, which find that COVID-19 policy responses and economic slowdown could reduce annual global emissions by 1-5 GtCO2eq, or 1.5-8.5%, in 2030 (Dafnomilis et al, 2022;Kikstra et al, 2021;Lecocq et al, 2022). The reduction in 2030 emissions explained by COVID-19 is almost one-quarter of the total reduction observed when comparing 2021 projections to 2015 projections.…”

Impact of Biogenic Carbon Neutrality Assumption for Achieving a Net-Zero Emission Target: Insights from a Techno-Economic Analysis

“…CDR strategies through measures in agriculture, forestry, and other land use could be sustained for decades, but not for very long because these sinks will eventually saturate. , This is observed in this analysis as forest sequestration decreases at the end of the time horizon. The current setup of NATEM-Quebec does incentivize the delay of biogenic emissions after 2050, and therefore, any results may turn out to be suboptimal as soon as post-2050 targets are defined.…”

“…The current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) until 2030 make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot and make it more difficult to limit warming to 2 °C after 2030 . Climate change mitigation pathways that limit warming to 2 °C or below require deep carbon dioxide removal through a large-scale transformation of the land surface, an increase in forest cover, and the deployment of negative emission technologies (NETs). , Four NETs are ready for large-scale deployment, namely, afforestation/reforestation, changes in forest management, uptake and storage by agricultural soils, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). These NETs incur low to moderate costs ($100/t CO 2 or less) and have significant potential for safe scale-up from present implementation .…”

“…However, disturbances may reduce the amount of carbon stored in unharvested boreal forests. Demand for wood can also support CDR via in-forest carbon storage as landowners may preinvest more in forest management. − While CO 2 sequestered by forestry practices can be stored for decades, the associated sinks will gradually become saturated. , BECCS plays an essential role in most climate change mitigation pathways limiting global temperature to 2 °C or below . However, the deployment of BECCS must incorporate the numerous strategies in which forests and forest-related sectors contribute to CDR because there could be trade-offs between carbon sequestration, storage, and biomass production, as well as between short-term and long-term GHG reduction targets .…”

Effects of nitrogen fertilization on the ground vegetation cover and soil chemical properties in Scots pine and Norway spruce stands

“…Climate change mitigation requires a rapid increase in forest carbon (C) sequestration (Lecocq et al 2022). Boreal forests can efficiently sequester and store substantial amounts of C as tree biomass, understory vegetation and in soil (Mäkipää 1995;Ilvesniemi et al 2002).…”